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Eight years of Obama made America great, where will the economy be in four?

danmand

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The US economy will take a very large hits during the next 4 years. Who knows what the trigger or Black Swan event will be, but the $T15 created during the last 20 years will come home to roost.

My bet is on a reset.
 

fuji

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The US economy will take a very large hits during the next 4 years. Who knows what the trigger or Black Swan event will be, but the $T15 created during the last 20 years will come home to roost.

My bet is on a reset.
The hits will be the consequences of Trump policies. Most likely a trade war.
 

fuji

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I mean everything I buy in Canada is made in China.
Canadian Tire, Home sense, Winners, you name it. I have family in the states, and its the same. Plates, toys, nearly every item.

So cut them out, and build more within. If it can be done, it has to benefit America.
It does benefit America. Americans have benefited from low prices, not only in Wal-Mart but all through the entire supply chain. The price of your food is lower because the farmer used tools and machinery from China. Your banking fees are lower because your bank bought Chinese desks, staplers, chairs, copiers, terminals, rugs, phones, etc.

Stop trade and you lose the gains from trade. Your buying power will be crushed by horrific inflation that will far outweigh the benefits of creating low paid jobs in the United States. My guess is without ANY trade US prices for goods and services, including food and housing, would double or even triple. Your purchasing power would be knocked back to as if you made half what you do today because costs would rise throughout the value chain.

Plus there's knock on economic impact. Let's say you buy a Chinese made dress instead of an American one as it saves you thirty bucks. What then? You spend the thirty bucks in a restaurant on a nice dinner, providing jobs for the chef and staff. Been Chinese dresses and you will eat out less often, so the restaurant will close. There's no way a US dressmaker can make a dress as cheaply so it's a straight economic loss to the AMERICAN economy.

As a rule assume that if you slap on a 30% tariff on imports you will see prices for ALL domestic goods rise by 30% because somewhere in the production costs have gone up by that much.

The primary reason why inflation has only been running at 1 to 2% for the last thirty years is Chinese imports. It's been a huge benefit to Americans.

It seems that Trump supporters fail Econ 101.
 

Jubee

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May 29, 2016
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Now were in uncharted waters as I didn't bring up Carrier or anything with the Unions. The things you say Trump has lied about, I have read nothing on. Its hard to know what he is lying about when
NO WORD OF A LIE, but I honestly thought, "wow, is Kathleen going to actually finish off that sentence with '...he lies so much'" LMAO!!!
But reality kicked in a split second into that thought and knew I'd be let down. lol
 

mandrill

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Aug 23, 2001
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It is insane to join two countries where labor costs say $100 a day in one and $10 a day in the other. For 300 working days, the cost differential per employee is $27,000. For 1000 employees, the saving is $27 Million. Guess where a company is going to want to manufacture their products?

So this is not free trade or fair trade. It is rape trade sanctioned by agreements like NAFTA and a body like the WTO for the benefit of multinational corporations and countries like China and Mexico. The TPP was going to join a tiny economy like Vietnam to a behemoth like the USA. And it was to allow multinational corporations to benefit from even cheaper labor rates these days in Vietnam. Trump was right to tear up the TPP, despite his continued hypocrisy of having his and Ivanka's goods manufactured offshore while he rails against others wanting to do the same.

So while globalization leads to lower prices, it is at the expense of labor and wages in advanced countries. This is not what Ricardo had in mind when he pronounced his comparative advantage thesis. For trade to be truly fair between say China and the US, labor cost differential has to be factored into the equation. Sure prices will go up some. But the revenue generated can be used for a massive training program, pay day care so mothers can go for vocational training and tear down and repair the dystopian ghettos.

BTW, I wrote a book on this subject 15 years ago - Save American Jobs. And I came up with a formula to calculate the labor differential factor. Maybe I should send a copy to Jared Kushner.
But you still have to deal with Fuji's arguments that the money saved from lower consumer prices in the developed world gets spent locally on luxury items. We could all go back to 1935 when a suit cost the equivalent of a month's wages and a man bought a suit every 10 years and his wife darned it when it frayed and wore and when "life's savings" were $5,000.00 in a tin box under the bed. Then you could piss goodbye all your "investment advisors", "addiction counsellors", high end "foodie" restaurants and everything that generates real income in North America these days. Oagre's grandad didn't have those either when he came back from a day in the coal mine and his wife gave him a cup of tea and they listened to the radio as entertainment.

The whole driving force of Western economy is that we all live a lifestyle equivalent to millionaire's back in my grandfather's day. You tariff out Third World manufacturing and that all ends.

Actually, it doesn't - because you have a popular revolution of mega proportions within a few years and the tariffs are torn down again.

And as far as Trump is concerned, his proposed attacks on Free Trade won him the presidency. I believe he will renege on every other promise made except attacking Free Trade and attacking the EPA. Those are easy to do, even for a lazy, aging cynic and part-time politician like himself.
 

onthebottom

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Economies go through cycles regardless of who is POTUS. US economy has come back because that's what the US economy does, not because of cash for clunkers or other policies.

Business is very optimistic about Trump, you see that in the spike in the market since he was elected. Lower taxes, less regulation and infrastructure spending all are encouraging for US business.
 

mandrill

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Economies go through cycles regardless of who is POTUS. US economy has come back because that's what the US economy does, not because of cash for clunkers or other policies.

Business is very optimistic about Trump, you see that in the spike in the market since he was elected. Lower taxes, less regulation and infrastructure spending all are encouraging for US business.
Sure. Lower taxes and increased spending should be great for an already huge national debt - assuming Trump keeps any of his campaign promises.
 

onthebottom

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Sure. Lower taxes and increased spending should be great for an already huge national debt - assuming Trump keeps any of his campaign promises.
Debt doubled under Obama in 8 years, I don't see much hand wringing from the left on that.
 

asterwald

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Debt doubled under Obama in 8 years, I don't see much hand wringing from the left on that.
They ignore the long term number (the debt) and try to make us focus on the current years dismal numbers. This is called cooking the books in Accountancy terms. They want us t forget that Obama was: 1. at war every single day of his presidency. 2. Increased the debt more than any other president combined.
 

Malibuk

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Jan 9, 2017
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Obama just kicked the can down the road.
Anybody who thinks he performed some kind of miracle is a delusional idiot.

And for the record, I like Obama.
I would have preferred another term of him over Trump or Clinton.
 

danmand

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2003
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Debt doubled under Obama in 8 years, I don't see much hand wringing from the left on that.
The debt have doubled both under Obama and Bush. It will eventually come back to bite the economy in the ass. Who knows which black swan event will be the trigger, but something will likely happen during the next 4 years. It will not be Trump's fault, but he will be the fall guy.

My bet is on a big reset.


Ma is correct that $14T (or half of it) have been wasted on the military, when the money instead could have been invested in infrastructure and production capability. I say half of the money, because clearly the military industrial complex carries over into civilian production.
 

bver_hunter

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Nov 5, 2005
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The economy was definitely in a freefall when Obama took over the Presidency. Every single economist believed that America was heading for a depression. In spite of the opposition from the Republican senate that obstructed almost every single bill that Obama tried to push, he did a remarkable job to turn the economy round. Yes, the price to pay was a high debt that is set to accelerate under Trump, as he is the elite that will want to make himself rich.

Talking about Trump, in the past few days since he took over the Presidency, he and his spokesman Sean Spicer have contradicted one another, and Trump has blasted him. Spicer has realised that there is no evidence of the blatant lies spewed by Trump about the millions of voters that fraudulently voted against him. This after the false propaganda about having the largest crowds in history at a Presidential inauguration ceremony is really the type of blatant lies that are common in reality programs. Trump needs to behave like a President and stop the constant attacks on the press, something that he has in common with that criminal called Putin.
 

fuji

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It is insane to join two countries where labor costs say $100 a day in one and $10 a day in the other. For 300 working days, the cost differential per employee is $27,000. For 1000 employees, the saving is $27 Million. Guess where a company is going to want to manufacture their products?

So this is not free trade or fair trade. It is rape trade sanctioned by agreements like NAFTA and a body like the WTO for the benefit of multinational corporations and countries like China and Mexico. The TPP was going to join a tiny economy like Vietnam to a behemoth like the USA. And it was to allow multinational corporations to benefit from even cheaper labor rates these days in Vietnam. Trump was right to tear up the TPP, despite his continued hypocrisy of having his and Ivanka's goods manufactured offshore while he rails against others wanting to do the same.

So while globalization leads to lower prices, it is at the expense of labor and wages in advanced countries. This is not what Ricardo had in mind when he pronounced his comparative advantage thesis. For trade to be truly fair between say China and the US, labor cost differential has to be factored into the equation. Sure prices will go up some. But the revenue generated can be used for a massive training program, pay day care so mothers can go for vocational training and tear down and repair the dystopian ghettos.

BTW, I wrote a book on this subject 15 years ago - Save American Jobs. And I came up with a formula to calculate the labor differential factor. Maybe I should send a copy to Jared Kushner.
Obviously China will specialize in low cost labour, there's no doubt about that. And the US will specialize in automation, finance, etc.

There are winners and losers as a result, but more winners than losers, and a bigger pie.

A trade war will create only losers and the American standard of living will nosedive if it's prolonged.
 

fuji

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You went to the extreme opposite. I'm not saying end all trade and don't import anything from China.

I'm saying put your own country first when dealing with trades. Make trades that work in your own best interest, and by that don't be so dependent on another nation.
With the climate the USA has, you have to be able to avoid bringing in produce from Mexico or South America rather than growing and shipping within the USA.
Same should hold true with building more things within the USA. Keeping costs low, so its not cheaper to import everything from China.



I said economics isn't something I'm educated in, and I hardly represent all Trump supporters.
Free trade DOES put the US first. No country in the world has benefited as much from trade as the United States. Trade made the US a superpower and US power grows the freer trade is.

Here's a hint: a trade deficit means that you are rich. It happens because you can afford to buy more than the other guy. American consumers simply outspend Chinese consumers because they CAN. The reason why is that the American economy generates more wealth than most of its trading partners.

SO MUCH wealth is created in the USA that Americans can afford to trade some of it for goods from elsewhere and STILL have more wealth.

This kooky notion that a trade deficit is a problem is just financially illiterate suckers being led down the garden path by a huckster populist.

You will NEVER be able to make dresses in the USA as cheaply as you can in China because Americans are too rich for it to be worthwhile doing that work. They get more on welfare in the US than the job would pay, and if they did it, it wouldn't even justify minimum wage. Not to mention that kind of work is a waste of their expensive educations.

Chinese workers are glad to have that wage that no American would touch, and Americans are happy getting cheap dresses so they have the $$$ left to actually go out to a frufru cocktail lounge in it.
 

mandrill

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The landscape has been littered with ghost towns and sad people repeatedly over the last 200 years. The economy of Northern England was built on coal mining. Closing the mines because oil and gas was cleaner and more efficient wrecked the lives of millions of miners and caused economic and political chaos in the Thatcher era. I don't hear people complaining now.

A 10% tariff is still a tariff.

And that ignores the enormous dislocation that is going to occur anyway through increasing automation and production efficiency and internal job loss as those union MI jobs move to NC and TX.

And the opioid crisis is alive and well in Toronto and Vancouver. Open your eyes. It has little to do with the economy.

Job loss is a Political Issue in the US Great Lakes region. It converted an aging right wing ranter into a surprise president and holds out the promise of long-term electoral success to the GOP - which would otherwise be contemplating a full on demographic crisis as aging rural whites are steadlily outnumbered by Hispanics and younger urban whites who tend to vote Dem.

As a result, job loss in MI and OH will be the big ticket item on the agenda for the next 4 years.
 

mandrill

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Oh btw, Khufu, Trump is stating that he will put the army into inner city Chicago to end the "carnage". We'll see what happens.

I predict that the gangs will simply more to other neighbourhoods and keep killing.
 

Jubee

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Oh btw, Khufu, Trump is stating that he will put the army into inner city Chicago to end the "carnage". We'll see what happens.

I predict that the gangs will simply more to other neighbourhoods and keep killing.
Lmao and how long does he plan to keep them there?
How much will that cost per day?

Again, simple mind for a very complex solution.
It doesn't help when black people aren't overly fond of the guy and his campaign remarks.
It certainly doesn't help when he's trying to undo everything their previous President has done.
Some of his ideas are the very thing these people rely on, affordable housing, social assistance, food stamps. http://affordablehousingonline.com/...ection-8-program-housing-assistance-programs/

But yah, sending in armed men in tanks will solve the murder rate. Lol
 
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