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Eight years of Obama made America great, where will the economy be in four?

fuji

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Obama inherited a nation that was staggering through a financial crisis, with massive layoffs and a plummeting stock market. He's leaving office with the Dow pushing 20k, historically low unemployment, and high consumer confidence.

The US is in great shape.

What will be the result of a Trump presidency?

Will he trash the economy with a horrific trade war?
 

Aardvark154

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A great many people disagree with you that the U.S. is in great shape. Donald Trump's campaign would have gone nowhere if the vast majority of the U.S. Public thought that everything is just great.
 

fuji

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A great many people disagree with you that the U.S. is in great shape. Donald Trump's campaign would have gone nowhere if the vast majority of the U.S. Public thought that everything is just great.
And yet unemployment is low, GDP growth is high, and the stock market is booming.

You've been had.
 

Aardvark154

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And yet unemployment is low, GDP growth is high, and the stock market is booming.
Unemployment is "low" because many people have withdrawn from the job market, the recovery during the eight years of the Obama Administration was a great deal slower than any previous recovery.

The stock market is booming because interest rates are so low that the only way to get the rate of return that even savings accounts provided 11 years ago is from stocks.
 

shack

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Unemployment is "low" because many people have withdrawn from the job market,
Do you have some numbers with which to do a proper comparison?
 

fuji

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Unemployment is "low" because many people have withdrawn from the job market, the recovery during the eight years of the Obama Administration was a great deal slower than any previous recovery.

The stock market is booming because interest rates are so low that the only way to get the rate of return that even savings accounts provided 11 years ago is from stocks.
Nonsense. The US is close to full employment. The only people who withdrew from the market are those who retired, went to school, or stayed home to raise children. All things people do when they feel financially secure.

Looking at just the 25 to 54 year age gap you can see how successful Obama has been after the disastrous Bush years:



Not only that but the tight labor market is now causing a rise in wages, which are also now rising at the fastest pace in decades.

Median family income has recovered:

 

fuji

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Obama leaves the country with 20 trillion debt due to his borrowing strategy. - 5 min Video that offers a take on this.

As for Trump, people can only hope for the best. Its hard to anticipate so soon, but recent actions with companies coming back to America or creating jobs does look promising.
Trump has proposed to increase that debt. He's not a debt cutting Republican, he's a populist spendthrift.

Trump has had zero impact so far and it will take about two years to see the impact of his policies. The current employment situation, the Dow at 20k, etc, is credited to Obama.
 

Aardvark154

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How about we at least give the new Administration 100 days after all Cabinet Secretaries are confirmed.
 

wazup

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Maybe Bill was gazing a fuji yesterday?
 

fuji

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There has been much since the election with job growth. Names like Amazon, Walmart, Ford, GM and others have all been in the news. When you say Trump has had zero impact so far, is when I challenge you and suggest you are being bias.
I think you need to step back and acknowledge most of the mentioned were at some form of inner growth already, and had nothing to do with Trump at all. While others, Trump did have a hand in.

An honest and more accurate take on all the recent names being mentioned is saying Trump has had a small impact on this. I think that's fair and true. Right now, he wants to pat himself on the back and take full credit (Which is wrong), while you want to give him no credit.

I know you dislike him as a person, but if he does work hard bring companies back to the USA, if he is directly responsible for millions of jobs, be willing to give due credit ever?
Companies are able to hire because of the strong economy. Most of those are previously announced jobs, Amazon for example was building those warehouses anyway.

He gets NO credit for the current state of the economy and little credit for the next six months to a year. It takes about two years for a policy decision to have economic input.

Of course Trump never trades in truth. He was again making false claims yesterday even over the number of people who (didn't) attend the inauguration.

He's a pathological liar.
 

Promo

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Kathleen, I've been ignoring most of your misinformation up to now, but i can't let this particular misleading post go. I don't believe you fact-check most of what you post.

Did you watch the 2nd debate where projected deficit numbers were presented and/or have you read any of the updated analysis? Trumps economic policies are expecting to result in the largest deficit budget(s) and therefore national debt by far in US history. He's going to lower corporate taxes (gov't revenue) and at the same time increase government spending, increase spending on the war on terror and potentially enter into several trade wars. To many who voted for him this was welcome news, but there will be significant economic consequences. No country can deficit spend or print money indefinitely. The tools normally available to the gov't for "managing" the situation short term (i.e. interest rates, issuing bonds) are now largely limited. The US can only be "Great Again" if it's built on a solid financial foundation.

Normally I'd provide proof of my position to you by providing links to several reputable economists and their analysis of Trump's policies, etc.. But why bother? Trump supporters in the US and here on TERB have for the most part voted/commented with their hearts and not their heads and have ignore hard economic facts.

As for Trump, people can only hope for the best. Its hard to anticipate so soon, but recent actions with companies coming back to America or creating jobs does look promising.
You mention Amazon, Walmart, Ford, GM below and I'll add Carrier and Boeing to the list. Again .... you are conveniently choosing to ignore many of the facts.

Both Ford and GM have stated that they were not in negotiation with Trump and these were plans already being considered and/or actioned. Ford, GM, Boeing and Carrier are still sending jobs out of the country, just less for now. All are investing significant $$ in factories in the US, but much of the investment is automation which in the long term means fewer jobs. Walmart is a huge outsourcer (IT, legal, accounting, audit, purchasing) and the majority of the US jobs tend to be lower paying, non-career jobs. Amazon's owner is an outspoken critic of Trump and they've been having a war of words for some time now - Amazon was already intending to build more (highly automated) warehouses in the US.

We still don't know what United Technologies was offered as no details have been released (not surprisingly).

Until we see what tax and other business incentives are actually put in place by Trump, I think you will find most American business will lay-low and/or compliment Trump to avoid Trump's attention and the punitive attacks by him and his uninformed minions. Afterall Trumps MO is to ATTACK! instead of building bridges.

Is Trump now buying his building products from American providers yet? What American manufacturer is making his fashion products now? The hats for his inauguration were made in Korea were they not?
 

Promo

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......... When you say Trump has had zero impact so far, is when I challenge you and suggest you are being bias.
I think you need to step back and acknowledge most of the mentioned were at some form of inner growth already, and had nothing to do with Trump at all. While others, Trump did have a hand in.
Trump LIED about the number of Carrier jobs that were saved (2000 vs 700) and then ATTACKED the union leader who pointed out the lie. Trump LIED about the number of Ford jobs saved and the nature of Ford's new investments. Trump LIED about the GM investment in US factories vs Mexican factories.

Trump may claim Mexico and China are enemies of American jobs, but the real long term enemy is automation. Trump cannot stop automation, nor does he intend to as this automation will benefit the already rich in America.

An honest and more accurate take on all the recent names being mentioned is saying Trump has had a small impact on this. I think that's fair and true. Right now, he wants to pat himself on the back and take full credit (Which is wrong), while you want to give him no credit.
Indirectly. Allot of companies I believe are choosing to wait and see how the new tax laws and tariffs may impact their business. In the meantime they are laying low to avoid a vengeful President. Many of the company names you mentioned; Amazon. Boeing, Ford and GM ....... already had a bad relationship with Trump pre-campaign. Trump is now just getting his revenge by calling them out (being the revengeful scumbag that he is) and they have to respond humbly in order to protect stock value and avoid his minion's death threats.

The new Boeing Air Force One aircraftis a perfect example. Trump has been at a war of words with Boeing Executives for years now. He gets into power and first thing he does is badmouth the company, personally badmouth the Executives and threaten to cancel the new Air Force One order (BTW the cancellation costs are significant). Trump argues that a new 747 is $380M yet each yet each AF1 is $2B and therefore Boeing can't manage their business and are gouging the US taxpayer. <Why is Trump allowed to make big profits, but no-one else??> Trump neglected to communicate that virtually every aspect of the airframe is upgraded and customized. The interior is completely customized with one-off materials and technologies. There is close to $700M in military electronics fitted. The aircraft is hardened against EMP, has additional communications systems, additional power generators, includes self-defense electronics and counter-measures, provisioned with in-flight refueling capabilities and key areas are protected against small arms fire. The price also includes a lot of spare parts, updated manuals and training for maintenance staff.
 

Flatulent Fox

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Trump may claim Mexico and China are enemies of American jobs, but the real long term enemy is automation. Trump cannot stop automation, nor does he intend to as this automation will benefit the already rich in America.
He's going to build a wall and make the robots pay for it!
 

fuji

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Promo - I Didn't see the reply, and much too late to properly go through what you posted.

You took a lot of time and thought, and that is very decent. I seldom fact check (hey, its a flaw, I know)
The very least I can do is go through it better when I have more time. I thank you for taking the time to respond something so detailed.
All that's happened so far is that companies have announced stuff they were already doing, and Trump has falsely taken credit for it. Just like he falsely said his rally was the largest. Just like he falsely claimed to have won a landslide.

The guy is the Kim Il Jong of American politics, making up ludicrous stories of his own greatness to try and build a cult of personality around himself.
 
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