National Football League 2016/17

mjg1 · Aug 29, 2016

I love the Fall, with the cool, crisp air and football. I have no idea who's going to the Superbowl, but you probably could rule out Dallas and Denver. Cowboys lost Romo for half the year, and looks like the Broncos will be starting a new QB, who has never played before.

Most teams fall in that average rage between 6-10 and 10-6. If you're better than 10-6, you're pretty much elite, below 6-10 and you're pretty much dog food! Every year some teams take steps up, while some take steps down, closer to the number draft pick.

I'm not going to breakdown each team, but these are my top teams.
NFC - Panthers, Cardinals, Vikings and Seahawks, Packers are still relevant.
Rams and Bucs on the upswing. Redskins on the downswing.

AFC - Patriots, Bengals, Steelers and maybe the Jets or Texans.
Raiders and Browns on the upswing. Chiefs on the downswing.

Ref · Aug 29, 2016

mjg1 said:
I love the Fall, with the cool, crisp air and football. I have no idea who's going to the Superbowl, but you probably could rule out Dallas and Denver.Raiders and Browns on the upswing. .

Browns on the upswing? They were 3 - 13 last year...I would hate to see what they would be on the downswing.

Just messing with you as I would love to see the Browns win it all.

Usually there is a last to first team and this year may break the trend. Out of all the divisions, the Titans seem more probable than others, though Dallas may surprise.

some pending questions:

* How will the Pats do over the first four games and more importantly, how motivated will Brady be?
* Does Dallas surprise without Romo?
* Can Baltimore bounce back?
* Will the Steeler high powered offense from last year continue in 2016?
* Is the window on Cincy closing off?
* Does Rex and the Buffalo D have anything to show the league?
* Will Denver suffer the Super Bowl letdown?
* Seattle and Arizona should be a battle
* Can the Vikes continue another year?
* Will the Panthers continue their dominance?

Some of the early feedback I have read:

* Jags look good
* Raiders look good
* Brady will be out to prove
* The Steelers are predicted to be in the Super Bowl

Should be another fun NFL season

K Douglas · Aug 30, 2016

I think the odds on favorite this season has to be Arizona. They will be looking for revenge after getting shellacked in the NFC final last season. I also like the Packers, Panthers, Seahawks and Vikings to be in the mix. Most improved team may be the Bears.
In the AFC I like Houston, NY Jets and the Bengals. Steelers are going to disappoint they will have major issues with their WR2. The Pats always seem to be in the mix even if Brady is out for 4. The Raiders are up and coming but may be another year or so away from really contending.

NFC is clearly more dominant than the AFC.

mjg1 · Aug 30, 2016

Ref said:
Browns on the upswing? They were 3 - 13 last year...I would hate to see what they would be on the downswing.

Just messing with you as I would love to see the Browns win it all.

Usually there is a last to first team and this year may break the trend. Out of all the divisions, the Titans seem more probable than others, though Dallas may surprise.

some pending questions:

* How will the Pats do over the first four games and more importantly, how motivated will Brady be?
* Does Dallas surprise without Romo?
* Can Baltimore bounce back?
* Will the Steeler high powered offense from last year continue in 2016?
* Is the window on Cincy closing off?
* Does Rex and the Buffalo D have anything to show the league?
* Will Denver suffer the Super Bowl letdown?
* Seattle and Arizona should be a battle
* Can the Vikes continue another year?
* Will the Panthers continue their dominance?

Some of the early feedback I have read:

* Jags look good
* Raiders look good
* Brady will be out to prove
* The Steelers are predicted to be in the Super Bowl

Should be another fun NFL season

I think Dallas is done without Romo, their rookie QB was mistake prone at Miss St. He has looked good in preseason, but it's preseason.

I wouldn't be surprised if Denver, didn't even make the playoffs. They are really going to miss Brock O. who went to Houston.

For some reason, I think the Steelers may have a surprising year, in a bad way. Le'Veon Bell can't stop smoking weed, he will probably get suspended. Plus Big Ben is getting long in the tooth.

If Cincy doesn't make the playoffs and win a game, you have to fire Marvin Lewis.

I may be wrong about the Chiefs being on a downswing, a lot of people like the Chiefs to win the AFC.

mjg1 · Aug 30, 2016

Well the Packers just won the NFC North, Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, torn his ACL and is out for the year!

workingstiff · Aug 30, 2016

The most interesting thing could come in week five if the Patriots start 4-0 under Garoppolo (not likely be if they get past the Cards in week one possible). As a long time Patriots fan (back to the Grogan days) I know how lucky we have been to have Brady and would personally select him over Garoppolo just to see him playing with a point to prove but Belichick is ruthless and if the team is winning without him it will be interesting to see how he handles the end of Brady's suspension...

mjg1 · Sep 1, 2016

workingstiff said:
The most interesting thing could come in week five if the Patriots start 4-0 under Garoppolo (not likely be if they get past the Cards in week one possible). As a long time Patriots fan (back to the Grogan days) I know how lucky we have been to have Brady and would personally select him over Garoppolo just to see him playing with a point to prove but Belichick is ruthless and if the team is winning without him it will be interesting to see how he handles the end of Brady's suspension...

I agree, if the Pats go 4-0 without Brady(which is unlikely), just give them the division and pencil them in the playoffs. I don't see anyway Belichick doesn't start Brady, no matter how well Garoppolo plays.

Ironhead · Sep 8, 2016

Are you ready for some football !

Regular season starts tonight ! :whoo:
A Super Bowl rematch; Carolina at Denver

thumper18474 · Sep 8, 2016

Got my nachos and salsa dip already cooling in the beer fridge
A dozen dos Equis ice cold
Yeeeeehaaaaàaa
I just hope they don't go too far overboard with the... Peyton on Sunday morning's...schtick

mjg1 · Sep 8, 2016

Carolina -3 at Denver

Denver is starting a new QB Trevor Siemian, I remember him in college at Northwestern and didn't know he was in the league. I like the Panthers all the way.

good to go · Sep 8, 2016

Going to take Denver tonight at +3&#55357;&#56838;

thumper18474 · Sep 8, 2016

We got 1600 in the suicide pool...and over 1/2...took Denver

K Douglas · Sep 9, 2016

good to go said:
Going to take Denver tonight at +3��

I took Denver to cover as well. Off to a positive start.

K Douglas · Sep 9, 2016

ATS best bets week 1

KC -6.5 vs SD. I think the Chargers will be improved from 2015 but they don't match up well vs KC and it's in Arrowhead, which is a tough place to play.
Oak +1.5 @ NO. The breakout guy to watch for in this game is Raiders TE Clive Walford. NO was dead last in defense vs the TE last season. Raiders win a close one in a shootout.
Phi -4 vs Cle. It remains to be seen how RG3 fares but I think it will be a tough game for him. Philly will blitz and blitz often.

shack · Sep 9, 2016

K Douglas said:
I took Denver to cover as well. Off to a positive start.

I've picked every game right so far this year. Up $15 already.

shack · Sep 9, 2016

K Douglas said:
ATS best bets week 1

KC -6.5 vs SD. I think the Chargers will be improved from 2015 but they don't match up well vs KC and it's in Arrowhead, which is a tough place to play.
Oak +1.5 @ NO. The breakout guy to watch for in this game is Raiders TE Clive Walford. NO was dead last in defense vs the TE last season. Raiders win a close one in a shootout.
Phi -4 vs Cle. It remains to be seen how RG3 fares but I think it will be a tough game for him. Philly will blitz and blitz often.

I am in no way questioning your information or knowledge or betting acumen but.....

I imagine that whatever factors you consider to be the ones that make the difference, the oddsmakers have already taken those into account plus many more plus possibly some inside information, when they come up with their lines. Therefore how can one logically think that even though we have less info, we can have any certainty as to where the oddsmakers are wrong with the number they come up with. I understand the line is supposed to be a position where the bets will balance out between the two teams but in reality that is still pretty close to what all the game factors alone would bring the line to.

Over the last 20 years I have tracked trends of some parameters as to what the odds guys come up with and what actually happens. That is, I am tracking how accurately the oddsmakers are picking the number. I am analyzing them, not the teams. Not surprisingly most of those parameters end out being very close to 50%.

For example, I look at home teams, favourites, home favourites, when division rivals play each other etc. The best one that I've found so far is betting on home dogs. They cover about 52.5% of the time. I've noticed that in most of the years the AFC covers more often than the NFC when playing inter-conference games. I've also noticed that almost every year underdogs who get 7-10 points cover more often than underdogs who get more than 10 points. Don't ask me why, it just is. Again, these discrepancies are quite small, all under 52%.

Seeing as we cannot know more than the pros in Vegas, I figure the best I can do is grab a 1 or 2 percent advantage.

Keep in mind playing these trends really only works when you are picking every single game. Trying to spot pick only certain games like this does not work. If you are in a pool where you have to bet against the spread on all games, I think you can have a bit of an advantage over the other pool participants.

I in no way break the bank, but I have had moderate success in pools I've been in. I'm definitely ahead of the game.

Ref · Sep 10, 2016

shack said:
I in no way break the bank, but I have had moderate success in pools I've been in. I'm definitely ahead of the game.

There are numerous sites out there that state pretty much the same thing. I guess the joy of betting is going with your own personal hunches and feeling satisfied when they come through.

A few years back I was in a weekly office pool where you picked all games against the spread. You would win half the pot of the week and there was a 1st, 2nd & 3rd place prize at the end of the season. One guy used to pick nothing but underdogs on every game all season long. I remember that he usually won a few weeks and always seemed to be in the money at the end. Probably because of the stats Shack mentioned.

I usually play about $50/week on proline during the NFL season. Most seasons I usually break even, though last year I lost money. A couple of years back I won a lot. One time I tried Bet 365, but for me, proline was easier, especially in terms of cashing out a winning ticket. I do play one ticket on the pools and over the years have won when a lot of favorites win. I have been really close to winning a big jackpot 2 - 3 times.

That being said, here are my picks for the opening week:

* TB +3
* Vikes -2.5
* Cincy -3
* SD +7
* Balt -3.5
* Bears +7
* Lions +4

Shack's homedogs:

* Titans: I do not see them beating the Vikes
* Jets: They could beat the Bengals, but it is not a playoff game so I'll stick with Cincy
* Jags: I may take them for 6.5 over the Pack
* Dallas: I want to see how they perform without Romo
* Skins: Not too sure if the Steelers offense last season will return this year
* 49er's: I do not have a good read on them or Rams yet.

I aint no expert, but I enjoy seeing if my hunches pay-off.

shack · Sep 10, 2016

Ref said:
Shack's homedogs:

* Titans: I do not see them beating the Vikes
* Jets: They could beat the Bengals, but it is not a playoff game so I'll stick with Cincy
* Jags: I may take them for 6.5 over the Pack
* Dallas: I want to see how they perform without Romo
* Skins: Not too sure if the Steelers offense last season will return this year
* 49er's: I do not have a good read on them or Rams yet.

Now that I've exposed myself I have extra need to do well in front of my TERB confreres.

Maybe I'll keep a season long log as per home dogs.

Ref · Sep 10, 2016

shack said:
Now that I've exposed myself I have extra need to do well in front of my TERB confreres.

Maybe I'll keep a season long log as per home dogs.

LOL! there is a good chance I will take your advice and put money on it!

mjg1 · Sep 11, 2016

Oh god, the evil empire won in Arizona, even without smug Tom Brady or Gronk.

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