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Thread: real estate..... is it true??

  1. #265
    At this point I'm not interested in buying more real estate and keeping myself liquid with the hope of a correction. I could be way off but I think a slowdown is coming in 2018. Town homes in the suburbs will be selling for close to $1 million if the current price acceleration continues in 2018.

    March saw a surge in listings compared to last year. It could just be sellers offloading before any new taxes are introduced. I hope it's the start of a trend in excess supply.

    The highest prices are typically in May and June. I think we will see more records broken. But what happens if interest rates go up even slightly later this year considering the improving economy and the US interest hikes. Is the BOC going to continue policy to keep the dollar low for exports and feed the real estate debt crisis/frenzy?

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  2. #266
    sell..... and move somewhere cheaper. Im thinking new brunswick, and snow bird the other six months in another country.

  3. #267
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    At this point I'm not interested in buying more real estate and keeping myself liquid with the hope of a correction. I could be way off but I think a slowdown is coming in 2018. Town homes in the suburbs will be selling for close to $1 million if the current price acceleration continues in 2018.

    March saw a surge in listings compared to last year. It could just be sellers offloading before any new taxes are introduced. I hope it's the start of a trend in excess supply.

    The highest prices are typically in May and June. I think we will see more records broken. But what happens if interest rates go up even slightly later this year considering the improving economy and the US interest hikes. Is the BOC going to continue policy to keep the dollar low for exports and feed the real estate debt crisis/frenzy?
    Townhouses in the suburbs are already going for 1.2 million. Often I see builder towns going for 1.25 or 1.3. It's the whacked out speculators that don't care about price. They just drop deposits expecting the value to be higher in 2 years when they are have to close.

  4. #268
    You're right, and new homes in the suburbs are now $1.8 million!

    I wonder what will break the camel's back. Looking at things now, I don't expect interest rates to increase much for a long time. Prices that are divorced from fundamentals just means they will eventually plateau (few can afford to pay higher amounts) but not necessarily correct. Some macro economic event such as Chinese pulling out of the market causing a sudden flood of supply or an event that causes speculators to want to get out fast.

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  5. #269
    Interest rates don't have to rise much. 2 more quarter points and its a very different story...
    Most of the speculators are starting to pull back now too....once there's no bid any more, you can wake up one morning to a collapse.

  6. #270
    My Analysis -

    1) low interest rates are driving investors into the market - trying to make more than 1.25% gain annually.
    2) These investors are not just local but international because low interest rates are a global problem now.
    3) Canada imports 150,000 ppl every year. Approx 75,000 families. Fully 30 - 40% settle in the GTA (say 25,000). Those who arrived say 7 - 10 yrs ago now want a part of the Canadian dream. With natural attrition (deaths and emigration) plus furious building pace, we can only achieve about 10,000 "new" homes annually. Demand has far out stripped supply for a long time.
    4) And then a question of a crash. We have so much pent up demand (by the lack of supply and current pricing) that a slight drop in the price will bring even more demand because it will suddenly become affordable to a huge chunk of the population. Yet again driving the prices up.
    5) So you understand clearly, this demand is not from investors but from families looking for a home. Because they understand that buying a home is ALWAYS cheaper than renting. No matter what the price. Rents have to track with prices or there is no returns for the landlord.

    In short, if you are think we will have the housing crash of the 90's - you are mistaken. That happened because the entire economy went into a recession.
    SPANISH TRIATHLON
    DRINK -> EAT -> FUCK

  7. #271
    Quote Originally Posted by BigVee View Post
    In short, if you are think we will have the housing crash of the 90's - you are mistaken. That happened because the entire economy went into a recession.
    But who's to say the economy cannot go into recession again?

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  8. #272
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    But who's to say the economy cannot go into recession again?
    True the economy is overly dependent on housing...

  9. #273
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    But who's to say the economy cannot go into recession again?
    Oh of course it can and it is a matter of when. But that is a catch 22 situation. The reason we have a recession is because people ( incl investors) don't have the confidence to make big purchases / investments. So those who think they'll wait for a recession to get into a market ( any investment) are deluded. Market timing never works .

  10. #274
    Quote Originally Posted by BigVee View Post
    Because they understand that buying a home is ALWAYS cheaper than renting. No matter what the price. Rents have to track with prices or there is no returns for the landlord.
    Funny when people talks in absolutes, it is ALWAYS cheaper, renters are LOSERS, etc.
    "No matter what price" is too high a price for me to pay, as you pay in lost financial freedom and long term privations just to keep up that "dream" of home ownership

    Rentals in the other hand are plentiful, and supply and demand (not landlord returns) will dictate how much they can price them. My rental has increased less than 10% in the 4 years I am renting it, I doubt it will go higher than inflation, and if it does, time to move somewhere else; again, plenty of deals as long as you are not aiming to be in the core downtown area

  11. #275
    Quote Originally Posted by BigVee View Post
    My Analysis -

    1) low interest rates are driving investors into the market - trying to make more than 1.25% gain annually.
    2) These investors are not just local but international because low interest rates are a global problem now.
    3) Canada imports 150,000 ppl every year. Approx 75,000 families. Fully 30 - 40% settle in the GTA (say 25,000). Those who arrived say 7 - 10 yrs ago now want a part of the Canadian dream. With natural attrition (deaths and emigration) plus furious building pace, we can only achieve about 10,000 "new" homes annually. Demand has far out stripped supply for a long time.
    4) And then a question of a crash. We have so much pent up demand (by the lack of supply and current pricing) that a slight drop in the price will bring even more demand because it will suddenly become affordable to a huge chunk of the population. Yet again driving the prices up.
    5) So you understand clearly, this demand is not from investors but from families looking for a home. Because they understand that buying a home is ALWAYS cheaper than renting. No matter what the price. Rents have to track with prices or there is no returns for the landlord.

    In short, if you are think we will have the housing crash of the 90's - you are mistaken. That happened because the entire economy went into a recession.
    And there is no immigration going to other cities all over the world? There is immigration going everywhere. We have plenty of land. Plenty of cities with immigration that don't even have land to expand. and you know what, we've had immigration rates at these levels since the beginning of time

    Buying a home is always cheaper? is this true only in a select few cities in the world including Toronto and Vancouver? No matter what the price? I don't think I even have to say anything about this. Brad Lamb is that you? LOL

    And if you don't think that investors have anything to do with increasing prices or a FOMO attitude then you are delusional. I can sit in a coffee shop anywhere in Toronto and hear discussions about Real Estate rental investments. Thousands of people across the city have an Excel spreadsheet listing 2-3 properties of which they put deposits on, with a column for "Purchase Price" and and another column for "Today's Market Price" and a third column with "closing date" LOL

    There are definitely other positive points to consider for investing in Toronto Real Estate for foreign investors. Canada is globally considered "safe", "multi culturally welcoming", "financially stable...etc etc.. but once again that helps some foreign buying. I can admit in many ways Toronto has gotten better. We needed a certain economy of scale to be able to afford globally recognised universities, competitive sports teams, and tourist attractions. But why would anyone locally want skyrocketing prices of living quarters? Its ridiculous. It's ridiculous that people regularly fear for the affordability of real estate for their children, yet think prices will still go up. If they become un-affordable that is intuitively the same reason why prices must come down. You take away the bid and a stock plummets. Same with real estate. It just takes a little longer and hurts much more. We can't sustain an economy of simply selling houses to each other. LOL

    Increasing interest rates can cause the next crash, or Trump politics on trade can cause a recession...causing a crash. People don't even have to be losing much money. What if their investments are still worth the same 15 years from now and they keep having to add money, pay for repairs, buy new furnaces, change a roof. Going nowhere for 15 years can hurt quite a bit too. Not just a crash.

    What's worse is people are renting out basements, rooms and weekend getaways just to make ends meet. Worse than anything, people are sacrificing eye doctor appointments that cost $70, dental appointments(living with pain), along with vacations, healthy food, time with friends and family all for a "granite countertop". Its silly. I'm sure most people on this site have their priorities straight! We sure aren't sacrificing everything for a home. A granite countertop that you own and unlimited internet, gets you a roof and hours and hours of facebook and youtube. What a life?
    Thats' the real cost of increasing real estate.

  12. #276
    Volume of sales has been significantly lower for detached homes in Vancouver for months compared to a year ago. Why have prices not gone down?

    https://www.thestar.com/business/rea...-in-april.html

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  13. #277
    +50% of pre-construction condo units are sold to investors who buy blocks and blocks of units and then either sell them as transfers of assignments, hold on to them while lying on the HST affidavits and then re-selling them whilst not declaring the property as not a principal residence and thus paying zero in capital gains tax.

    Therein lies the main reason, which the provincial and federal governments didn't address, for the rapid escalation of property values.
    I'm a bitter house**** baby....so why don't you **** me.

  14. #278
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    Volume of sales has been significantly lower for detached homes in Vancouver for months compared to a year ago. Why have prices not gone down?

    https://www.thestar.com/business/rea...-in-april.html
    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

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