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Thread: real estate..... is it true??

  1. #289

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  2. #290
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    At this point I'm not interested in buying more real estate and keeping myself liquid with the hope of a correction. I could be way off but I think a slowdown is coming in 2018. Town homes in the suburbs will be selling for close to $1 million if the current price acceleration continues in 2018.

    March saw a surge in listings compared to last year. It could just be sellers offloading before any new taxes are introduced. I hope it's the start of a trend in excess supply.

    The highest prices are typically in May and June. I think we will see more records broken. But what happens if interest rates go up even slightly later this year considering the improving economy and the US interest hikes. Is the BOC going to continue policy to keep the dollar low for exports and feed the real estate debt crisis/frenzy?
    Based on market behaviour in may-June, I bought a triplex in June at a $130k discount from what it would have sold for in March. A bad move? This is a long term play. The debt is easily serviced and will grow equity for the next couple of decades.

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  3. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post

    Detached will follow suit as home owners won't settle for anythin less than 900,000 as they all got a taste of it.
    The bar has been set. Unless there are desperate sellers out there. So much guessing as to what may happen, but it will not crash, that's for sure.
    As a friend put it to me "when I start seeing new buildings, developers, construction workers, walking away from their sites, then I'll get worried" --- these guys are backed by guys with big bucks who REALLY analyze the situation, they clearly see Toronto still growing.
    This could be a few months of uncertainty, but it'll level out.

    I know of one home that had multiple offers (4) and it went $150K over asking...so.......

  4. #292
    I was watching hot property this week. They felt there was just too many sellers. People should hold off until September and list again then. That way along with new listings that come up there wil be be fewer listings??? He reiterated that the economy is strong. Lots of immigration and thousand of highly skilled students graduating into high paying jobs. He said Manulifes affordability survey was self serving. Manulife wants you to buy RSPs, but he said remember the stock market crashed in 2008 and people lost 40% in a short time. He said to stick within real estate. Even though it's down 17% right now in the long term real estate goes up. If I'm not mistaken the stock market rebounded to par within 2 years and in 1990 real estate dropped over 60% and it took 14 years to return to par. He also said by end of the show that rates won't go up cause the economy is shaky. So basically anything the real estate pundits say is all conflicting and garbage. LOL.
    Don't get mixed up with whether real estate developers/builders make money versus your investment property makes money. Downtown Toronto rental market is fierce, not the GTA rental market. It is interesting to see how landlords now rent out two units in a basement that used to only rent out one. AirBnB works too. None of that shit is going into my house though. LOL.

  5. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by Jubee View Post

    I know of one home that had multiple offers (4) and it went $150K over asking...so.......
    I heard of 3 homes in my previously hot Richmond Hill area that dropped their listing prices 3 times for an average of $350 000 and then each sold for varying amounts of 10-30 thousand below and over ask. Lawyers have stacks of deals not closing across the city.
    It might sort itself out but with70% chance of another interest rate hike this year, I'll wait a bit longer to buy on spec.

  6. #294
    Quote Originally Posted by wonkyknee View Post
    I heard of 3 homes in my previously hot Richmond Hill area that dropped their listing prices 3 times for an average of $350 000 and then each sold for varying amounts of 10-30 thousand below and over ask. Lawyers have stacks of deals not closing across the city.
    It might sort itself out but with70% chance of another interest rate hike this year, I'll wait a bit longer to buy on spec.
    Yeah it's all relative. Recall just how high prices surged in March 2017 from March 2016 across the GTA - see chart on: http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2017/04...arch-2017.html

    That chart averages all home types. The price growth for detached homes at that time was even more staggering.

    The current average 19% drop in prices from the April peak is not so drastic when one looks at how high prices were in April. That and the fact that the summer usually sees sales slow down and prices fall compounded with the recent government intervention.

    There's a ton of inventory and many are beginning to pull their listings. Homes in great areas still routinely sell for over asking, and if I recall correctly about 40% of neighbourhoods are still seeing prices increases from the previous month (e.g. Junction, North Riverdale, etc). Check neighbourhood stats at Zolo.ca

    There will be some people that may be forced to sell under duress, but I think most people (including those that bought in the first quarter of the year who have lost a ton of equity), are simply going to enjoy their home and ride out the market for years. Unless we see a huge sell off by speculators, I don't see any material negative change in market trajectory. The market will find its balance and continue up steadily. We will probably never see price growth like in 2016 to the first quarter of 2017 again in our lifetimes, and that's ok. 3% - 7% annual price growth on properties over a million dollars is still a ton of 'free' money.

    This is not the toronto of 1989 in any way. Much larger population, less supply, more jobs/industry, has global cache, and is a haven for foreign investment.

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  7. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    Yeah it's all relative. Recall just how high prices surged in March 2017 from March 2016 across the GTA - see chart on: http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2017/04...arch-2017.html

    That chart averages all home types. The price growth for detached homes at that time was even more staggering.

    The current average 19% drop in prices from the April peak is not so drastic when one looks at how high prices were in April. That and the fact that the summer usually sees sales slow down and prices fall compounded with the recent government intervention.

    There's a ton of inventory and many are beginning to pull their listings. Homes in great areas still routinely sell for over asking, and if I recall correctly about 40% of neighbourhoods are still seeing prices increases from the previous month (e.g. Junction, North Riverdale, etc). Check neighbourhood stats at Zolo.ca

    There will be some people that may be forced to sell under duress, but I think most people (including those that bought in the first quarter of the year who have lost a ton of equity), are simply going to enjoy their home and ride out the market for years. Unless we see a huge sell off by speculators, I don't see any material negative change in market trajectory. The market will find its balance and continue up steadily. We will probably never see price growth like in 2016 to the first quarter of 2017 again in our lifetimes, and that's ok. 3% - 7% annual price growth on properties over a million dollars is still a ton of 'free' money.

    This is not the toronto of 1989 in any way. Much larger population, less supply, more jobs/industry, has global cache, and is a haven for foreign investment.

    Your last statement is the big difference from what I've been reading about the comparisons, well said.

  8. #296
    "What slowdown? Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets still hot and unaffordable for many"
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real...ices-1.4236245

    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

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