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Thread: real estate..... is it true??

  1. #337
    Realtors, developers brace for crash

    In April, just 43% of pre-sale condos offered in Metro Vancouver sold, compared to 94% in January, 83% in February and 63% in March, said Cameron McNeill, a partner in MLA Canada, the real estate marketing firm that hosted the Pre-Sale Pulse seminar at Olympic Village.
    https://biv.com/article/2018/05/real...rs-brace-crash

    Uh-oh... how long before this happens in Toronto...

    and

    http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/...iet-1.23263369


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  2. #338
    ITALIAN BELLA KADIE
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    I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

    It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

    And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!


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  3. #339
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    It will never happen in Toronto. We are the unbreakable and not comparable to the rest of Canada's major cities!!!!

  4. #340
    Quote Originally Posted by HOLLYWOODG View Post
    It will never happen in Toronto. We are the unbreakable and not comparable to the rest of Canada's major cities!!!!
    Sounds like the exact sentiment one would hear at the peak of a bubble.

    Heard the same sort of comments from other major bubble cities in the world.

  5. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kadie Lux View Post
    I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.
    When I looked into the housing market about 4 years ago
    outside GTA prices in Guelph were already catching up with Toronto.
    Kitchener/Waterloo were pretty much as pricey. I was somewhat
    tempted to buy a residence in Cambridge or London. I could have
    bought a decent town house in London at a price near $150k back
    then. Don't know what the housing price parity is like now but I've
    pretty much given up hope of spending my retirement years
    in a property I own in GTA. I now expect to have to look as
    far as Thunderbay to find an affordable retirement home.

  6. #342
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    Kadie, you should talk to a mortgage broker you feel comfortable with. He or she could find you a mortgage if you have a down payment and steady self-employment income. If your income is not showing up on your tax returns, it might be trickier. But you could probably arrange a private mortgage directly from a seller.

    You should speak to a financial advisor. I'm sure other indy escorts could give you a name or two.

    Cheers,
    Einar

  7. #343
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kadie Lux View Post
    I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

    It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

    And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!
    Kadie, you should talk to a mortgage broker you feel comfortable with. He or she could find you a mortgage if you have a decent down payment and steady self-employment income. If your income is not showing up on your tax returns, of course, it might be trickier. But you could perhaps arrange a private mortgage directly from a seller.

    You should speak to a financial advisor or a real estate lawyer. I'm sure other indy escorts could give you a name or two.

    Cheers,
    Einar

  8. #344
    Quote Originally Posted by Kadie Lux View Post
    I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

    It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

    And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!
    You can buy a house without an actual "job" but you will have to pay a much higher interest rate to offset the higher risk to the lender. Some alternative lenders and private lenders offer this.

    If you have a significant down payment (say 30% or more of the property value), you may be able to get a better rate.


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  9. #345
    Quote Originally Posted by HOLLYWOODG View Post
    It will never happen in Toronto. We are the unbreakable and not comparable to the rest of Canada's major cities!!!!
    Hmmm that sounds familiar to what was said in 1988 thru 1990:
    https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/sta...78764621934594
    Toronto is a world class city and if you think there will be a major correction because price gains have been excessive in relation to income growth, you will be disappointed – CIBC 1990
    https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/sta...54281934389248
    Hefty investments from “Asian business people”, increased immigration, limited supply, and domestic investment will stem the tide of weakening housing markets next year - Royal LePage, November 15, 1989
    https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/sta...41124376653824
    “Young people must lower their expectations or move out of Toronto if they want to buy a home” - Chuck McIlravey, VP of Confederation Trust, Dec. 23, 1989
    Confederation Trust was forcibly shut down 5 years later after sustaining heavy mortgage losses.

    https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/sta...90230832414721
    What happened to those sketchy financial institutions that financed Toronto’s last real-estate boom? Here is an old newspaper ad from the peak of the last boom featuring 12 of them. Hint: they batted .500
    https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/sta...81032417337346
    “Many of the people who suffered losses during the real-estate slump of the past two years stretched themselves too thin and purchased properties they could not afford” - Brad Lamb, Dec 21, 1991
    One thing you should take note of if you're in the real estate game, is the concept of "regression to the mean" which is defined by the straight red line on this 2016 graph: https://s-i.huffpost.com/gen/5026956/original.jpg

    Let me put it another way. When Sly Stallone hosts a Real Estate seminar in your city telling you how to make it rich, complete with a Pitbull concert, you know something's amiss. A segment of the market is intoxicated on exuberance and irrationality. https://torontolife.com/city/busines...e-wealth-expo/


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  10. #346
    The market has crashed and we're in the Denial stage of a bubble. See https://static1.squarespace.com/stat.../?format=1500w

    April New home and new condo sales in GTA worst in 20 years:
    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/0...es_a_23441999/
    April resale in GTA worst since 2009:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...art-since-2009

    In VanCity, real estate agents and developers are bracing for a crash due to the collapse of new home sales:
    https://biv.com/article/2018/05/real...rs-brace-crash
    Condo flipping in VanCity is slowing dramatically:
    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/st...90131653586944
    Vancouver's Empty Home Tax brings in millions:
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/va...llions~1378674

    Lending growth grinding to a halt:
    https://dir.richardsongmp.com/docume...8-b2d10fdad953
    CIBC expects new mortgages to halve in second half as rules bite
    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...-from-year-ago
    It's taking longer to sell a home:
    https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/stat...43126285975552

    We're reversing course on the things that created the bubble:

    1) Interest rates are increasing rather than decreasing and the B20 Stress Test has practically pushed out new borrowers/buyers
    2) Oil prices are increasing raising the value loonie, which is opposite to the 2014 oil crash which saw the loonie tank
    3) Foreign buyer's tax and China's capital controls putting a stop on foreign money into our real estate markets
    4) Speculation is declining. 50% of new condos are sold to speculators and 50% of them cannot cover mortgage payments

    In the backdrop we have:
    a) Highest mortgage debt on record (for both bank and private lenders)
    b) Highest consumer debt on record
    c) Highest school debt on record
    d) Half of Torontonians rent and half of them can barely afford it: https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-t...fordable-rent/
    e) Record HELOC and reverse mortgages

    Even developers are slowing down as prices for land acquisition are too high: http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2018/05/...ment-take-turn

    The impact of a declining real estate market on the economy? https://www.macleans.ca/economy/how-...adian-economy/

    Liquid cash is king and becoming more valuable by the day.


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  11. #347
    Macquarie thinks housing will drag Canada into a recession as bad as the financial crisis in two years — and that’s the best-case scenario

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...recession-call

    Roughly half of all economic weakness during recessions since the Second World War is tied to fluctuations in residential investment, he calculates, and the extent to which Canadian output and employment are currently reliant on this is “unprecedented.”

    Macquaire’s best-case scenario is that the fallout, starting in 2020, will be as bad for Canada as the 2008-09 financial crisis. Worst case: The unemployment rate will spike by more than any recession since the Great Depression.
    With housing slowing down (price declining, sales volume declining, lending volume declining) more than seen in a decade, interest rates increasing, and a record number of pre-sale condo buildings coming to completion over the next couple of years, I'd take this outlook seriously.


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  12. #348
    Banks need something to reduce their risks of lending you and anyone money. So the persons who have stable jobs with regular and predictable paycheques can be one of the evidences to reduce risks for the banks.

    Escorting job may have high incomes in one day and no income at all in many days. So for the banks, escorting job doesn't have stable and predictable incomes and creates high risk for the banks to lend you and other escorts money.

    The real estate market has been down for the past one plus years since May 2017. So there is no rush to jump into the real estate market to make any purchase right now. It's better to wait for at least a couple more years until after the real estate market will crash and the prices will continue decreasing more substantially. The real estate market will crash in the next couple years considering people's real incomes are not increasing and millions of young peoples in Canada are now attending post secondary education right now with very little prospect of finding quality jobs when they will graduate. So the unemployment will be higher because the Canadian economy doesn't create quality, full-time and skilled jobs as many as the large number of millions of peoples who are looking for quality jobs. That's why we're seeing large numbers of people who are in the 30s are still in the colleges and universities in Canada because there are not enough quality jobs for them and being frustrated in working in the part-time, low-paid retailed and unskilled jobs. Students' debts are on the rise and perhaps many peoples who are in 20s and 30s right now are having tens of thousands of dollars of the student debts.

    Many of the degrees achieved by attending colleges and universities in Canada are useless because there are very little and opening quality jobs for people who have the degrees in Canada. The baby-boomers continue to work passing their usual retirement age around 62 - 65 because they don't have enough safety nests in their bank accounts and pension plans in addition to the rising costs of living, needed medications, hospitalization and major surgeries' expenses. The so-called "Walmart Greeters" who are the senior citizens continue working either part-time or full-time has already been a norm and commonly practiced in Canada.

    Economic speaking, little of quality jobs are created, large numbers of unemployed and underemployed among people who are in 20s, 30s and even in 40s, as a result, the real estate market will collapse with major prices' reductions in the next couple years. We need young people to purchase entry level homes from the new and resale market so the older folks can sell their homes to move up to larger and more expensive homes. That is not happening right now because the young people are mostly unemployed or underemployed.

    So it's better to wait for at least a couple more years until after the prices reduce more substantially to make a purchase in the Canadian real estate.



    Quote Originally Posted by Kadie Lux View Post
    I really want to buy a small house either in Hamilton, Grimsby, St Catharines or even Guelph.

    It sucks that you need an actual "job" to buy a house. I dont understand why you cant get a house if you have the down payment.

    And these sky rocketing house prices need to stop!!
    Last edited by NiceToMeetYou; 06-10-2018 at 03:41 PM.

  13. #349
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    Torontoís House Price Bubble Not Fun Anymore

    Wolf Street
    Jun 4, 2018


    Housing in the Greater Toronto Area is, letís say, retrenching. Canadaís largest housing market has seen an enormous two-decade surge in prices that culminated in utter craziness in April 2017, when the Home Price Index had skyrocketed 32% from a year earlier. But now the hangover has set in and the bubble isnít fun anymore.

    Home sales plunged 22% in May compared to a year ago, to 7,834 homes, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB). It affected all types of homes, even the once red-hot condos:


    Detached houses -28.5%
    Semi-detached houses -29.4%
    Townhouses -13.4%
    Condos -15.5%.

    It was particularly unpleasant at the higher end: Sales of homes costing C$1.5 million or more plummeted by 46% year-over-year to 508 homes in May 2018, according to TREB data. Compared to the April 2017 peak of 1,362 sales in that price range, sales in May collapsed by 63%.

    But itís not just at the high end. At the low end too. In May, sales of homes below C$500,000 Ė about 68% of them were condos Ė fell by 36% year-over-year to 5,253 homes.
    .................................................. .............

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/04/to...bble-deflates/

  14. #350
    We're now at 3 months of inventory. If this trend continues we'll be in a buyer's market by December.


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  15. #351
    I walked around the tourist area in "Unionville" where it's in Markham. I've seen so many For-Sale signs in front of the homes in the areas. One street named Pavilions or something has 4 homes for sale on the same or intersected street LOL. The other 3 homes on the other streets had for sale signs when I walked there in the last summer and took the signs out in the last winter. Now the same 3 homes have the for-sale back in front of their houses again LOL. So they could not sell in the last year. Then delisted in the last winter and re-listed again in this summer LOL.

    It seems like a bunch of folks have tried to cash out before their home prices dip down further and substantially. Only the fools will buy their homes now instead of letting the home prices sink further LOL.

  16. #352
    Quote Originally Posted by NiceToMeetYou View Post
    I walked around the tourist area in "Unionville" where it's in Markham. I've seen so many For-Sale signs in front of the homes in the areas. One street named Pavilions or something has 4 homes for sale on the same or intersected street LOL. The other 3 homes on the other streets had for sale signs when I walked there in the last summer and took the signs out in the last winter. Now the same 3 homes have the for-sale back in front of their houses again LOL. So they could not sell in the last year. Then delisted in the last winter and re-listed again in this summer LOL.

    It seems like a bunch of folks have tried to cash out before their home prices dip down further and substantially. Only the fools will buy their homes now instead of letting the home prices sink further LOL.
    That's correct. Unless the months-of-inventory (MOI) trend reverses course, those sellers might struggle in the coming months. As of this time, Markham MOI is over 4 months, so they're in a 'balanced' market: https://www.zolo.ca/markham-real-estate/trends

    A Buyer's Market typically starts at 6 - 7 MOI, and that is when prices begin to come down.

    By contrast, the City of Toronto proper MOI is still only 2.5 months. It'll be the last market to get hit since it's the area in the GTA with the greatest demand.

    Maybe Ford will reverse some of the policies that slowed down housing and give a boost to the market. Or maybe it's too late now anyway.


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  17. #353
    Every pyramid scheme ends the same way

  18. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by HEYHEY View Post
    Every pyramid scheme ends the same way
    I for one went to the top of the pyramid. the home I sold two days before the tax kicked in has dropped 350-400 thou.
    Although I do admit I feel sorry for the young couple, with a new born...who bought

  19. #355
    Quote Originally Posted by rgkv View Post
    I for one went to the top of the pyramid. the home I sold two days before the tax kicked in has dropped 350-400 thou.
    Although I do admit I feel sorry for the young couple, with a new born...who bought
    I remember you posting about the sale here on TERB. Congrats!

    Don't feel too bad for the young couple. Their loss is only on paper. They will not lose anything unless they sell right now. The house value will go back up again in the future as they raise their family there.


    Think of the children -> http://www.numberofabortions.com/
    I want you to point your finger at me. I want you to call me names.

  20. #356
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    I remember you posting about the sale here on TERB. Congrats!

    Don't feel too bad for the young couple. Their loss is only on paper. They will not lose anything unless they sell right now. The house value will go back up again in the future as they raise their family there.
    That paper loss shows up on any renewal and potential refinance though. It could haunt them for years.

  21. #357
    "Why a US-Style Housing Bust & Mortgage Crisis Can Happen in Canada, Australia, and Other Bubble Markets"

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/20/us...-non-recourse/

  22. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by Smallcock View Post
    I remember you posting about the sale here on TERB. Congrats!

    Don't feel too bad for the young couple. Their loss is only on paper. They will not lose anything unless they sell right now. The house value will go back up again in the future as they raise their family there.
    I talked with the new owners to see what there plans are. As I thought, plan was to tear it down, build the monster house, make big profit. Problem now he said was.. can't get loan on property, over mortgaged, no money to build... need to rent till market returns..
    I think it will be years till they can even get what they payed for it.

  23. #359
    Quote Originally Posted by rgkv View Post
    I talked with the new owners to see what there plans are. As I thought, plan was to tear it down, build the monster house, make big profit. Problem now he said was.. can't get loan on property, over mortgaged, no money to build... need to rent till market returns..
    I think it will be years till they can even get what they payed for it.
    why don't they just use cash from their savings?

  24. #360
    Quote Originally Posted by rgkv View Post
    I talked with the new owners to see what there plans are. As I thought, plan was to tear it down, build the monster house, make big profit. Problem now he said was.. can't get loan on property, over mortgaged, no money to build... need to rent till market returns..
    I think it will be years till they can even get what they payed for it.
    Numbers don't make sense, IMHO. Value has dropped $350-$400K and that is affecting their ability to build a Monster home? Even if the value didn't drop and stayed the same, not really sure how they were even planning on tearing down a home, getting permits, plans,etc.... And building this monster home to make a huge profit. If the drop in the market has stopped their ability to do something, then they were not very smart or prepared (had a strong cash reserve or access to money) in the first place. Most likely received dumb advice from someone or came up with the crazy idea themselves. The way it sounds they wanted to make a killing and if that was the plan, they would have had to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars (high hundreds to over a million) to get the job done.
    "The envy of all mankind". Don't believe me, just ask her

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