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real estate..... is it true??

thenormalguy

Member
Jun 9, 2018
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soon could be a year or two from now...higher oil prices could lift Canada for a year or more; but a higher rates and further housing price corrections could take its toll too..once again probably not til next year.
higher brent and wti does not mean better prices for canadian oil. The sentiment is better (or was) but canadian production is generally heavily discounted.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A-Detailed-Guide-On-The-Many-Different-Types-Of-Crude-Oil.html
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
28,702
3,400
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Saw an article. Over house prices up 1% from last year.

My hope is 3% over the next ten years year to year to get to early retirement.

But I knew it would start slow.
 

angrymime666

Well-known member
May 8, 2008
972
536
93
houses that I have been viewing are still going for multiple offers above ask. nothing insane as 2016 but over ask by 5-10k where I am looking. single detached bungalows with original owners that have never been updated since they were built.

even a tear down dump in hamilton for 169k will go over ask.

I think I may forgot about buying a house in southern ontario and go buy out of province and live in another country for 6 months out of the year.
 

wonkyknee

Active member
Jan 20, 2006
3,499
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38
houses that I have been viewing are still going for multiple offers above ask. nothing insane as 2016 but over ask by 5-10k where I am looking. single detached bungalows with original owners that have never been updated since they were built.
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I'm finding the same thing in my area and the area i'm looking to move to, only the ask has often dropped twice already(both in the 416). I find the RE agents won't do a price drop on the listing but rather cancel and list again as new so buyers don't know the price has been dropped. But when you've been watching for awhile you'll notice the same house listed again and again each time with a lower price but never showing the previous price. The rules in this industry are really archaeic and need some basic regulation to stop duping the consumers.
 

NiceToMeetYou

Active member
Oct 24, 2010
719
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I'm finding the same thing in my area and the area i'm looking to move to, only the ask has often dropped twice already(both in the 416). I find the RE agents won't do a price drop on the listing but rather cancel and list again as new so buyers don't know the price has been dropped. But when you've been watching for awhile you'll notice the same house listed again and again each time with a lower price but never showing the previous price. The rules in this industry are really archaeic and need some basic regulation to stop duping the consumers.
I agree. Laws in the real estate markets in Canada are lacking in transparency. Unlike the laws in the USA in real estate markets, they keep track of the prices' drop to give more protection to consumers. Also, if an agent de-list and re-list a property again in the USA, it continues to count number of days of listing from the original listing instead of resetting to 1 as in Canada. So the agent cannot fool potential buyers. Laws in Canada is more to protect the real estate business owners than consumers.
 
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nottyboi

Well-known member
May 14, 2008
22,447
1,325
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I think in 416 with high transfer taxes, buying and selling is dampened. Until employment starts to decline, I don't see much risk of rapid depreciation. But of course with rising rates I do not see rapid rises in price either.
 

Smallcock

Active member
Jun 5, 2009
13,703
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I agree. Laws in the real estate markets in Canada are lacking in transparency. Unlike the laws in the USA in real estate markets, they keep track of the prices' drop to give more protection to consumers. Also, if an agent de-list and re-list a property again in the USA, it continues to count number of days of listing from the original listing instead of resetting to 1 as in Canada. So the agent cannot fool potential buyers. Laws in Canada is more to protect the real estate business owners than consumers.
Some very good news today. The Toronto Real Estate Board's (TREB) appeal to keep Sold Data private has been rejected by the supreme court, so now home sold data can be made public by realtors. Expect lots more sites to pop up with this data moving forward.

TREB are scumbags for launching the lawsuit and keeping it going for years to hide information that is made readily available in markets such as the U.S.
 
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knight12341

Member
Jan 30, 2018
31
8
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Prices will not drop. Canada will not go through a real estate bubble. The banks are far too strict with the loans
 

foru2discover

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2002
2,696
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I found this recent article

Ocotber 3, 2018 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,455 sales through TREB's MLS® System in September 2018 – up 1.9 per cent compared to September 2017. The average selling price for September 2018 sales was up by 2.9 per cent over the same period to $796,786. The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was up by two per cent year-over-year.

New listings entered into TREB's MLS® System in September 2018 amounted to 15,920 – down by 3.1 per cent compared to September 2017. With sales up year-over-year and new listings down, market conditions became tighter. Many buyers may have found it more difficult to find a home meeting their needs.

So my thoughts are that..
The lower supply and higher demand , with low interest rates for now will continue to drive prices up in the GTA.
Interest rates will have to increase a fair bit to see prices drop . Prices drop when there is more supply than demand
and homes sit on the market too long then you start to see more price reductions . The higher end homes take a bigger hit
but look at the condo market still booming and the rental market is insane in the GTA another indication of short affordable supply.
 

Smallcock

Active member
Jun 5, 2009
13,703
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Prices will not drop. Canada will not go through a real estate bubble. The banks are far too strict with the loans
Cycles are unavoidable.

Vancouver detached is down 20% YOY in some areas, and Months-of-Inventory is up to 15 months. 111 sold last month - the lowest in 28 years.

Toronto is still holding but I think it will turn a corner as rates rise. Recessions have resulted most often when rates begin to rise historically. The amount of debt out there is crazy.
 

NiceToMeetYou

Active member
Oct 24, 2010
719
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I think that with the stock markets have been crashing in the past couple days except today, the turning point of economic recession is just around the corner.

Once the recession is in full blown, there will be lots of job cuts by various employers and many people need to unload their debts and mortgage payments after loosing jobs for a couple months before the EI will run dry in the next couple months. My prediction would be major and substantial prices' reduction in the residential GTA market will be imminent.

It would be hard to know how much will be the drop in the real estate market's prices because it will depend on locality and locations of the properties. However, I am quite confident that the drop could be as much as 40% from today prices in the less desirable areas and locations or even in the more desirable locations where their prices have been just too high to be attractive to any buyers.

Say "Cheers" to many of the investors when the time will come with the major drop in the GTA real estate markets.

For those who "bank" in their assets from their real estates as their major income's contribution in their retirement... You may need to put your retirement on hold for at least another 4 or 5 years until the real estate markets will be bounced back and your positions in the retirement equity portfolio will be improved after the stock markets' crashes.

That may make the millenniums cry because they want your jobs badly and have been waiting for you old folks to retire sooner...
 

eternalbachelor

New member
Jan 17, 2017
426
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For those who bank in their assets from their real estates as their major income's contribution in their retirement... You may need to put your retirement on hold for at least another 4 or 5 years until the real estate markets will be bounced back and your positions in the retirement equity portfolio will be improved after the stock markets' crashes....
or you may have to simply become landlords for these 5 years?
 

Smallcock

Active member
Jun 5, 2009
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Bigdaug

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2017
388
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I thought there would be a bust a few years ago these prices are unreal and they don't seem to be dropping. Its very tough to survive in Canada right now rent is through the roof people are just living off debt.

Its sad to see what has happened people cant afford to have children or save anything for retirement even with good paying jobs. Governments answer is immigration milking off the tax payer.

2000 dollar for dollar debt

2018 dollar seventy one to every dollar ultra low intrest rates and heard mentality have created this mess not sure how we're going to get out.

Its funny how difficult it is to find price history on these homes I've been able to find some. House 2014 going for 260k now 600k lol. These are townhomes Hamilton branford grimsby lol
 

wonkyknee

Active member
Jan 20, 2006
3,499
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Recession in Canada is all but certain. Vancouver Real estate is falling. Toronto Real Estate activity is down considerably affecting RE agents, mortgage brokers etc etc. 1/2 of all mortgages renew over the next 18 months at 1.5% higher rates than people had previously. Car sales are plummeting. Good news if you're shopping for a car these days. Oil patch is dismal. Just waiting for the Doc to call "time of death"
 

Bigdaug

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2017
388
282
63
Yea but realestate prices are still climing lol. There hasn t been much drop at all in prices. Housing prices are uo 70% in hamilton last five years eveyone is coming from toronto wages are stagnant.

I just don t get it !!!!!!!
 

angrymime666

Well-known member
May 8, 2008
972
536
93
Yea but realestate prices are still climing lol. There hasn t been much drop at all in prices. Housing prices are uo 70% in hamilton last five years eveyone is coming from toronto wages are stagnant.

I just don t get it !!!!!!!
the realtors are still pressing that house prices are still at 2016 prices. there is very little inventory out there. I was looking at a 800sq ft house dated to the 50s with a wet basement in hamilton. it was priced at 279k. realtors believe that this house renovated could get 400k.

the math just isnt there.

its realtors pushing up prices for their bottom line.
 

onthebottom

Never Been Justly Banned
Jan 10, 2002
40,558
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Hooterville
www.scubadiving.com
the realtors are still pressing that house prices are still at 2016 prices. there is very little inventory out there. I was looking at a 800sq ft house dated to the 50s with a wet basement in hamilton. it was priced at 279k. realtors believe that this house renovated could get 400k.

the math just isnt there.

its realtors pushing up prices for their bottom line.
350 sq ft....
 

angrymime666

Well-known member
May 8, 2008
972
536
93
350 sq ft....
yes. drop 50k for materials(not including labour) and the math doesnt add up for me to make a decent profit after everyone else gets paid. that house would never sell for 375-400k especially when there are new builds in the area that are not selling at 400k with 2x the sq footage.
 

wonkyknee

Active member
Jan 20, 2006
3,499
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LoL. Now the Hamilton real estate market is the way to go? LOL.

Even just before the last real estate market crash, Hamilton prices were up. Rexdale and Jane/Finch side splits were going for $400 000 before they dropped to $180 000. Last think I'd do late in a market cycle is speculate in a crappy area. Worst move possible!

This is an election year. I fully expect JT to get rid of the 2% qualifying rule. Maybe even bring back 30 year amortizations. Maybe increase CMHC mortgage insurance to 1.2million or 1.5million. I hope one of these things staves off a collapse. But make no mistake, this is no time to pay full price for an investment property.
 
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