Toronto Escorts

Oil prices???

langeweile

Banned
Sep 21, 2004
5,086
0
0
In a van down by the river
A recent comment by an analyst put th price of oil at $105 a barrel, in the near future.

In another thread here I saw some postings regarding supplies. It looks like that supply shortage is currently not an issue.
What is driving the prices? Speculations?Poltitics? Greed?How long before the economies of the world take a serious hit?

Will the current spikes change your driving habbits?

I am wondering.. :confused:
 

n_v

Banned
Aug 26, 2001
2,006
0
36
langeweile said:
A recent comment by an analyst put th price of oil at $105 a barrel, in the near future.

In another thread here I saw some postings regarding supplies. It looks like that supply shortage is currently not an issue.
What is driving the prices?
POTUS policies.
 

The Doctor

Still Without Humour
Jun 2, 2003
2,319
1
0
1060 West Addision
Immediate supplies are not too much of an issue but most who predict oil prices at above $100 are applying quite a premium to oil stores 12 months out.
 

langeweile

Banned
Sep 21, 2004
5,086
0
0
In a van down by the river
someone said:
I think that Goldman is the analyist you're talking about. For a link to the story on his prediction see http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/31/news/international/goldman_oil.reut/
Thanks..scary stuff.
Why i can see that consumers sooner or later will buy smaller more fuel efficent cars I can't imagine how goods will move caross the country in the future.
Europe has a big advantage since it is relatively small in size and goods don't need to travel as far.
As for the world market?A lot of dreams for a global economy will become very expensive.
 

The Doctor

Still Without Humour
Jun 2, 2003
2,319
1
0
1060 West Addision
You could very well be correct. My comment was based on a report I heard last week that referred to an irrational price premium being factored in based on supply/demand expectations for the end of 2005.
 

n_v

Banned
Aug 26, 2001
2,006
0
36
langeweile said:
I thought the window was 6 month from crude to the gas station. :confused:
I heard it is 3 weeks.
 

someone

Active member
Jun 7, 2003
4,307
1
36
Earth
langeweile said:
Thanks..scary stuff.
Why i can see that consumers sooner or later will buy smaller more fuel efficent cars I can't imagine how goods will move caross the country in the future.
Railways? They are more fuel efficient than trucks.

langeweile said:
Europe has a big advantage since it is relatively small in size and goods don't need to travel as far.
As for the world market?A lot of dreams for a global economy will become very expensive.
I don't know about that. I would think that sea going stuff would still be pretty cheap. Moreover, with the internet, knowledge based stuff (e.g. documents, programs, etc.) should not really be affected. However, I guess time will tell. I agree that if the 1970s are anything to go by, it will take a long time for the economy to adjust. However, one big difference is that in the 1970s Canada was a net oil importer while now we are a net oil exporter. I guess we will have the answers in time.
 

cyrus

New member
Jun 29, 2003
1,381
0
0
langeweile said:
A recent comment by an analyst put th price of oil at $105 a barrel, in the near future.

In another thread here I saw some postings regarding supplies. It looks like that supply shortage is currently not an issue.
What is driving the prices? Speculations?Poltitics? Greed?How long before the economies of the world take a serious hit?

Will the current spikes change your driving habbits?

I am wondering.. :confused:
The problem is not the crude oil supply but mainly the current status of the refineries!
The refineries around the world including the ones in USA are old and their capacities have already max out of the range of demand. There has not been much investment in building new and or refurbishing the old refineries for decades now.
Of course the politics of pre-emptive war, WMD in i.e., Iraq, Iran. .. as well as anti-Bush sentiments in Venz. aren't helping either!
 
Last edited:

Asterix

Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2002
10,025
0
0
cyrus said:
The problem is not the crude oil supply but mainly the current status of the refineries!
The refineries around the world including the ones in USA are old and their capacities has already max out of the range of demand. There has not been much investment in building new and or refurbishing the old refineries for decades now.
Absolutely correct. Witness the recent explosion at the refinery in Texas. Refineries in the US are working around the clock and are near the breaking point, the last one being built in the mid seventies and no new ones planned anytime soon. No one seems to want one in their back yard, and the oil companies are balking because of environmental regulations. Eventually crude oil will likely be shipped to refineries in Asia and then back to the West, though it may take years to catch up.
 

enjoyall

New member
Jan 15, 2005
64
0
0
just trading

While all the reasons mentioned above are valid, the biggest reason is speculation. I am in the trading business. We buy or sell based on momentum. Supply and demand affect the long term price, the short term movement are mostly based on how high traders think it will go. It is like the internet stocks in 1999, virtually everyone now knows energy stocks are hot. The only reason people writes an article calling for $100 oil price is he/she wish it would go there.
 

onthebottom

Never Been Justly Banned
Jan 10, 2002
40,558
23
38
Hooterville
www.scubadiving.com
Asterix said:
Absolutely correct. Witness the recent explosion at the refinery in Texas. Refineries in the US are working around the clock and are near the breaking point, the last one being built in the mid seventies and no new ones planned anytime soon. No one seems to want one in their back yard, and the oil companies are balking because of environmental regulations. Eventually crude oil will likely be shipped to refineries in Asia and then back to the West, though it may take years to catch up.
Do we have the tree hugging envirohead to thank for this?

OTB
 

Asterix

Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2002
10,025
0
0
onthebottom said:
Do we have the tree hugging envirohead to thank for this?

OTB
No. I think it's more that we are selfish enough to prefer other people to do our garbage work for us.
 

cyrus

New member
Jun 29, 2003
1,381
0
0
onthebottom said:
Do we have the tree hugging envirohead to thank for this?

OTB
Domestically yes but not as much, thanks to the hostile foreign policies and western greed that imposes unfriendly trade policies on the private sector by preventing them from major investments in new refineries especially in the Middle East
i.e., USA actively has been preventing American or other western investments in oil & gas area for some times now (investment of over 20M); it is cheaper to buy and easier/safer to transport or import crude oil than refined high grade petroleum and petrochemicals. Remember most of Middle East countries income still depends on oil and by keeping these vital investments out of their reach keeps these nations down and on the leash longer!
 
Last edited:

cyrus

New member
Jun 29, 2003
1,381
0
0
enjoyall said:
While all the reasons mentioned above are valid, the biggest reason is speculation. I am in the trading business. We buy or sell based on momentum. Supply and demand affect the long term price, the short term movement are mostly based on how high traders think it will go. It is like the internet stocks in 1999, virtually everyone now knows energy stocks are hot. The only reason people writes an article calling for $100 oil price is he/she wish it would go there.
Yes but, speculation is a short term burst not a trend, what we have been seeing is a long trend for some times now and some times to come!
 

Keebler Elf

The Original Elf
Aug 31, 2001
14,572
203
63
The Keebler Factory
langeweile said:
Will the current spikes change your driving habbits?
Yes, to some extent. I will try to avoid city-driving but the real change will probably be monitoring my fuel consumption so that I can time my gas purchases to the times of the week when fuel prices are lower (e.g. Monday nights). If I can get a job within walking distance of home, I'll really save a bundle. I know that when it came time for me to buy another car, fuel consumption was an issue. I didn't buy a hybrid or anything, but I also avoided models that burn unnecessary amounts of fuel.
 

someone

Active member
Jun 7, 2003
4,307
1
36
Earth
This may seem anal retentive on my part, but these posts about supply and demand reflect a misunderstanding on the use of the terms. The posters seem to think that the effects of speculation on price are separate from the effects of supply and demand. In actual fact speculation is part of demand (or supply, if supplier hold off supply in the hopes of future higher prices). I think that what the posters mean to say is that short run supply and demand functions are heavily influence by speculation while long run supply and demand is primarily influenced by fundamentals. In the absence of market rigidities (which no one has argued) supply and demand determine price in both the long and short run.
 

enjoyall

New member
Jan 15, 2005
64
0
0
price chart

Look at the 1 year price chart of light crude and tell me, did real demand (I mean real consumption, given supply held constant) increase 66% as the chart indicate? All this "Chinese needs more oil" talk is true to a limited extent, but it is simply the false logic behind the price run. It's the execuse to run oil up by the traders. Look the increase in trading volume of light crude and gasoline in the past two years versus the previous years, there are lot more players who want to make a quick buck in trading oil futures.

I personally think the price hike in oil will put pressure on governments around the world to spend more on researching alternative energy source and discourage wasteful consumption.
 

Vietor

New member
Dec 21, 2004
138
0
0
The price run up should push the US to develop its massive oil shale deposits as Canada has done with its oil sands in Alberta. Between the US and Canada, in so-called unconventional deposits, are the greatest amount of oil reserves in the world, amounting to some 3.7 trillion barrels. The following article details what the effects of developing this resource would be, not only to the US, but to the world. See: http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/publication/Pubs-NPR/npr_strategic_significancev1.pdf.
 
Toronto Escorts