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Anti War Crowd Lost War of Expectations?

onthebottom

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Do you think it is possible that all the doom saying about how the liberation (use occupation if it makes you feel better) in Iraq is going has backfired on anti-war interests?

The vote in Iraq was a resounding success - even the network news channels, which are not always very friendly to the POTUS, are gushing. I think it's possible that by adopting the mantra of total failure in Iraq the anti war crowed might look a bit foolish at the moment. There was ABC coverage last night from Faluja, long lines of voters in relative safety where there once was a no-go zone.

I think it may be very easy for the POTUS to position at the State of the Union address tomorrow that we're winning the war of liberation, that the strategy is working, that Iraqi's are stepping up to defend and take back their country.

OTB
 
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yychobbyist

onthebottom said:
Do you think it is possible that all the doom saying about how the liberation (use occupation if it makes you feel better) in Iraq is going has backfired on anti-war interests?

The vote in Iraq was a resounding success - even the network news channels, which are not always very friendly to the POTUS, are gushing. I think it's possible that by adopting the mantra of total failure in Iraq the anti war crowed might look a bit foolish at the moment. There was ABC coverage last night from Faluja, long lines of voters in relative safety where there once was a no-go zone.

I think it may be very easy for the POTUS to position at the State of the Union address tomorrow that we're winning the war of liberation, that the strategy is working, that Iraqi's are stepping up to defend and take back their country.

OTB

This election was a victory of sorts but whether it remains a lasting one or not is highly debateable. The elections themselves were of a preliminary nature only, we don't know who the winners were, the outcome is in doubt and I'd even go so far as to argue that it's hardly democratic when one doesn't know the candidates until one walks into the voting booth. Be that as it may, it is mere puffery to suggest that anyone other than the United States is "defending" Iraq and, at that, they are only defending the Iraq they want to defend.

Lastly, I have to agree with BBK. Who said that if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth? I cannot believe that the world's only superpower, a nation of 300 million largely educated and sensible people would allow their leaders to lie to them so often that they allow history to be rewritten.
 

onthebottom

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bbking said:
Funny how this war has gone from the hunt for WMD, to the possibility of training people in WMD to a democratic Arab world. Having said that - my hats off to the Iraqi people who braved a hostile enviroment to do what most of us in the West take for granted - vote. While this is a great victory for the Bush Administration, they should also take it to mean that the Iraqi people want to take back their country not only from the terrorists but also the Americans. I think the US should commit now to a withdrawal stratagy - one that is fair to all parties but one that might light a fire under Iraqi officials to make sure they are able to deal with the terrorists.


bbk

I'll think you'll find that no one wants Americans out of Iraq more than Americans (and the Bush administration in particular). While I think we should commit to a withdrawal strategy I don't think we should commit to a withdrawal timetable. When Iraqi's can secure their own country we should leave, no sooner or later. I think you're right on this being a "victory" for the Bush administration - there was all sorts of winging about postponing the election - I have to say that this result will likely embolden the POTUS to stay on target - this will make a stubborn man even more stubborn.

OTB


OTB
 

BiggieE

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The election sunday was a enormus Victory for the Citizens of Iraq. I think the fact that they turned out in such large numbers, and under the conditions imposed upon them, serve as proof that they are glad we liberated them, and are happy we are helping them rebuild their Nation. Freedom can be a long, hard road, but in the long term, it's worth it.....
 

onthebottom

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yychobbyist said:
......

Lastly, I have to agree with BBK. Who said that if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth? I cannot believe that the world's only superpower, a nation of 300 million largely educated and sensible people would allow their leaders to lie to them so often that they allow history to be rewritten.
What lie? I think we all know there are no WMDs in Iraq. Many have supported the war since discovering that, and this would be a bit of a vindication for their perspective.

OTB
 

langeweile

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I was wondering when the "Nay" sayers are finally going to shut up?
Everyone has the right to his or her opinion, but the constant painting of the "doomsday scenario" get's a bit old after a while.

The war in iraq is not a pretty thing, but which war is? Was it justified?Was it necessarry?Will it have a lasting impact in the ME?Who knows, only time will be able to answer this question.

Regardless on which side of the issue you stand. For me watching theses people celebrate the fact of a free vote makes up for a lot of the hardships.
It's easy for us to complain, we have the freedom to vote and determine our own destiny.Until today they didn't.
 

BiggieE

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The vote in Iraq also does something else. It helps those who have lost sons to the war effort to see a wonderful thing happen, because of the sacrifice that was made...."That these dead, shall not have died in vain....."....
 
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yychobbyist

onthebottom said:
What lie? I think we all know there are no WMDs in Iraq. Many have supported the war since discovering that, and this would be a bit of a vindication for their perspective.

OTB
The lie was that the initial publically stated reasons for going to war were all about WMDs and the threat posed by Iraq to the the international community. Now, you went to war for the liberty of all Iraqis. Jesus Christ OTB, wake the fuck up, the U.S. went to war for American interests and in the interest of American cititzens, and not for a single Iraqi or for a single Iraqi interest.
 
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yychobbyist

langeweile said:
I was wondering when the "Nay" sayers are finally going to shut up?
Everyone has the right to his or her opinion, but the constant painting of the "doomsday scenario" get's a bit old after a while.

The war in iraq is not a pretty thing, but which war is? Was it justified?Was it necessarry?Will it have a lasting impact in the ME?Who knows, only time will be able to answer this question.

Regardless on which side of the issue you stand. For me watching theses people celebrate the fact of a free vote makes up for a lot of the hardships.
It's easy for us to complain, we have the freedom to vote and determine our own destiny.Until today they didn't.
You also know what gets a bit old after awhile? You people sitting there saying that freedom and democracy is such a wonderful thing and that the ends justify the means when even the most ardent Shrubists amongst you have no idea what the ends could possibly be.
 
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yychobbyist

BiggieE said:
The vote in Iraq also does something else. It helps those who have lost sons to the war effort to see a wonderful thing happen, because of the sacrifice that was made...."That these dead, shall not have died in vain....."....
And what happens if the vote results in the imposition of an Islamic theocracy which never again allows for another election? Do you think some mother or father in Des Moines is gonna think their son's life was worth that? Hardly.
 

BiggieE

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I have a feeling that since the People in Iraq have had a taste of freedom, that this won't happen< but the key words in your statement is "if the people choose".....My neighbors boy has been in Iraq for about 6 months, and he was very pleased that they held the election.....
 
Jan 24, 2004
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The Vegetative State
The election in Iraq certainly surprised many people, myself included.

However - and not to take away anything from this achievment - let's keep our heads. I have to say I'm equally astounded at the attitude that seems to be pervailing at the moment, which is deeply reminiscent of the infamous "Mission Accomplished" fiasco.

This election did not elect a new government. It created a body whose purpose it will be to create a new constitution - and this is not going to be an easy thing to do.

There remain hundreds of thousands of insurgents in Iraq, and insurgents, as I don't need to remind you, care not a fig for elections. The driving factors feuling this insurrection - race, religion poverty - are just as problematic now as they were on Jan. 29th. The problems in Iraq's infrastructure may be healed, but not overnight - Iraq still remains an increadibly deadly place to live - and ethnic tensions may never go away. Insurmountable problems? Hardly - many other countries in the world are able to create stable, democratic polyethnic societies. And then again, many are not.

The success of the election was created by two inter-related factors - the determination of the Iraqi people and unprecedented - and unsustainable -security measures. Once these security measures lapse, and lapse they must, the problems of getting through everyday life will come flooding back to Iraq.

As noted in the Time article I quote in my thread, this election was not, initially, the product of American but of Iraqi thinking - specifically, al-Sistani's. (Yes, once the plan was decided upon Bush did back it against all opposition - wisely, as it turns out). But Sistani's motives for insisting upon an election remain unclear. We might say, if we are cynical, that the move was in fact designed to marginalise the Sunnis, since any council the Americans would be likey to appoint would probably include more Sunni representation than an election would produce. We still know next to nothing about what kind of state al-Sistani wants to create - although he does seem set against an Iranian style theocracy - nor how much he will need to concede to the more radical elements within the Shi'a community, which was as early as August in revolt. We do know that Sistani has little patience for Kurdish nationalist ambitions. We will have to wait and see how far he is willing to accomidate the largely disenfranchised Sunni population.

My point - let's take the election for what it was, a first, and not a last step. We've all seen how the eagerness to declare victory too early can have disasterous consequences.
 

langeweile

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yychobbyist said:
You also know what gets a bit old after awhile? You people sitting there saying that freedom and democracy is such a wonderful thing and that the ends justify the means when even the most ardent Shrubists amongst you have no idea what the ends could possibly be.
True, maybe we "shrubbists" don't know the endgame, but neither do you.
If people don't stick out there neck occasionaly and take risks, even if it's not convinient, some countries in this world would be still a dictatorship.
Let history be the judge.
 

onthebottom

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yychobbyist said:
The lie was that the initial publically stated reasons for going to war were all about WMDs and the threat posed by Iraq to the the international community. Now, you went to war for the liberty of all Iraqis. Jesus Christ OTB, wake the fuck up, the U.S. went to war for American interests and in the interest of American cititzens, and not for a single Iraqi or for a single Iraqi interest.
If we remove the word "lie" from your logic I think it would stand up better. We didn't go to war to liberate Iraq, although liberating Iraq was the only way we could accomplish the original goal. I think the benefits that could come from a liberated and democrat Iraq (and it is way too early to declare victory in the war, just this battle) are what the administration is focused on.

My post was about expectations, the anti war left in this country (and yours) has been beating a completely negative drum, and I think it will backfire.

We heard that our forces would get bogged down in Afghanistan - they didn't.

We herd that our forces would get bogged down in house-to-house fighting in Baghdad - they didn't.

We herd that these elections would be a fiasco - they were not.

Some have even said that believe these elections would bring democracy to Iraq is to dream in "Technicolor".

I jus think the already marginalized left in the US is doing itself no favors by betting against success - GWB is on a hell of a roll.

OTB
 

onthebottom

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DM,

Well said, it is in no way a last step but a VERY important first step. I also think it is a step worth celebrating. You have to wonder, if there are really 200k insurgents (which I think is high by 10x) where were they on election day - you can't guard against that many people - which would seem to argue there are about as many news crews in Iraq filming insurgent deeds as insurgents themselves.

At what point does old Europe get over the fact that we did this without their consent and start helping the Iraqi people. Iraqi's will write a constitution, elect a government and rule their country - one would think at some point the French / Germans.... could swallow a bit of pride and help them out. With every step taken towards independence (transfer of control, election...) I would think the argument gets stronger for the countries who have sat this out to get engaged.

OTB
 

someone

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onthebottom said:
My post was about expectations, the anti war left in this country (and yours) has been beating a completely negative drum, and I think it will backfire.

We heard that our forces would get bogged down in Afghanistan - they didn't.
I don't want to get bogged own responding to everything in your post that I think is questionable so I will just concentrate on the above two points.

First, as far as Canada is concerned, being against the war is not limited to the “left”. Most people I associate with are definitely right of center. Yet, I know few that don’t recognize that the Iraq war was both wrong on moral grounds and a mistake from the point of view of the interests of America and the west in general. It has very little to do with left versus right. Indeed, the only person that I frequently associate with that supports the war came to Canada as a U.S. draft dodger! (I find that very ironic).

Also since the issues in Afghanistan have very little to do with Iraq, I don’t know why you bring it up. Afghanistan really was part of the war on terror when it was invaded. Iraq only became associated with terrorists after it was invaded.
 

onthebottom

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someone said:
I don't want to get bogged own responding to everything in your post that I think is questionable so I will just concentrate on the above two points.

First, as far as Canada is concerned, being against the war is not limited to the “left”. Most people I associate with are definitely right of center. Yet, I know few that don’t recognize that the Iraq war was both wrong on moral grounds and a mistake from the point of view of the interests of America and the west in general. It has very little to do with left versus right. Indeed, the only person that I frequently associate with that supports the war came to Canada as a U.S. draft dodger! (I find that very ironic).

Also since the issues in Afghanistan have very little to do with Iraq, I don’t know why you bring it up. Afghanistan really was part of the war on terror when it was invaded. Iraq only became associated with terrorists after it was invaded.
All right, I should have written that the American left and Canada - there you happy now.

Afghanistan was just one of a string of poor predictions of failure.

OTB
 

someone

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onthebottom said:
All right, I should have written that the American left and Canada - there you happy now.

Afghanistan was just one of a string of poor predictions of failure.

OTB
No I am not "happy". I'm stuck at work hundreds of miles from the SPs in T.O. I won't be happy until my next visit there :)
 
Jan 24, 2004
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Well, as for the number of insurgents in Iraq, I'm only going by the number the Iraqi intelligence chief came up with earlier this month - 200 k. He might be off, and off badly, but I would be astounded if he was off by 10x. Who knows, could be.

I'll agree, the left can be too negative - just as the right can be too positive. Again - without intending to diminish the significance of the election - the problems Iraq had on Jan. 29th are still there today. And there is a possibility - I won't say it's a strong possibility, but it isn't a weak one, either - that the election will actually force internal tensions within Iraq to a boiling point. Let's hope that won't be the case.

See how productive a discussion we can have when we're all civil to one another? Peace in Iraq and on TERB - two beautiful dreams.
 
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