Interesting article in the Economist:
Brother, where art thou?
Jan 13th 2005
Don't expect to see the back of the Bush dynasty in 2008
FOR the thousands of Republicans who are descending on Washington, DC, Inauguration Day presents a cornucopia of opportunities. It is a chance to pay their respects to the leader of their tribe. It is an excuse for some serious partying. And it is an occasion to chew the fat about the future: not just that of the Republic, with reform of Social Security and the like, but also about an altogether more absorbing question, the future of the Republicans. To wit: who on earth is going to fill George Bush's boots when he returns to Texas in 2009?
This is an unusual problem. Vice-presidents traditionally get the first crack of the whip, whether their bosses want them to or not. But this time round Dick Cheney, a man who has already had four heart attacks, has made it clear that he doesn't want the top job. This creates a unique opportunity: an ascendant Republican Party with a looming vacancy at the top.
There is no shortage of candidates to suit all Republican tastes. Blue-state Republicans have Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki and Mitt Romney. Social conservatives have Rick Santorum and Bill Owens. Establishmentarians have Bill Frist. Mavericks have John McCain and his buddy Chuck Hagel. Republican revolutionaries may well have Newt Gingrich (who is using the publication of his new book to test the waters). But the best candidate by far is a man who dare not speak his surname: Jeb Bush.
Think of all the qualities that make an ideal Republican champion and Jeb has them in spades. He is the governor of the archetypal swing state: Florida is a multicultural hodgepodge with a red-state north, a blue-state south and 27 electoral votes. He is something of a multiculturalist himself: his wife was born in Mexico, his three children were once dubbed “the little brown ones” by George senior, and he is a convert to Roman Catholicism. Neatly, his governorship runs out in 2006.
The Bush family has always regarded Jeb as the bearer of the family fortunes. He was not only much more hard-working than his elder brother (he started kindergarten a year early and graduated from the University of Texas in two-and-a-half years). He was also much more ambitious; as a child he wanted to become president, while George wanted to be a baseball star. One of the family's biggest political surprises came in 1994, when George won the governorship of Texas while his “big little brother” (Jeb is five inches taller than George) went down to defeat in Florida.
But Jeb is not just a goody-two-shoes. He is more of an ideological conservative than his elder brother. He drank deep of the products of conservative think-tanks at a time when George was drinking deep of the world's distilleries. During his first term as governor he slashed taxes by more than $1 billion, introduced America's first statewide school-voucher programme, appointed a pro-life Catholic to the state's Supreme Court, spoke of “blowing up” state agencies and took on just about every Democratic interest group imaginable, from the teachers' unions to minority lobbies. But he manages to hide what he describes as his “head-banging” conservatism behind an emollient exterior.
Only one problem haunts this gold-plated CV: the family name. The Bush family is now the most successful political dynasty in American history. The Kennedys racked up barely 1,000 days in the White House; the Bushes will have done four times that by the time George W. finishes his term. But would Americans really vote for a third Bush president in 20 years?
No less an authority on the subject than the matriarch of the family, Barbara, thinks the answer is no. She has proclaimed that two Bushes in the White House may be enough—for now. But it is easy to overestimate America's instinctive hostility to dynasties. Americans may be allergic to English kings, but look at their fondness for a line of Adamses, or Roosevelts, or Tafts. “We'll have Jack for eight years, Bobby for eight and Teddy for eight,” went a joke in the early years of the Kennedy administration. And both Bobby and Teddy ran for the presidency.
Dynasties bring huge benefits as well as potential costs. The Bush brand is worth millions in advertising, and it gives Jeb access to the most powerful fund-raising machine in American politics. The potential costs can be minimised if the other side can also be tarred with the dynastic brush. Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of the field of potential Democratic candidates. If she decides to make a run for the presidency—and Hillary signs are already appearing in Washington—then Jeb can reap all the benefits of his name while incurring few of the costs.
cont...
OTB
Brother, where art thou?
Jan 13th 2005
Don't expect to see the back of the Bush dynasty in 2008
FOR the thousands of Republicans who are descending on Washington, DC, Inauguration Day presents a cornucopia of opportunities. It is a chance to pay their respects to the leader of their tribe. It is an excuse for some serious partying. And it is an occasion to chew the fat about the future: not just that of the Republic, with reform of Social Security and the like, but also about an altogether more absorbing question, the future of the Republicans. To wit: who on earth is going to fill George Bush's boots when he returns to Texas in 2009?
This is an unusual problem. Vice-presidents traditionally get the first crack of the whip, whether their bosses want them to or not. But this time round Dick Cheney, a man who has already had four heart attacks, has made it clear that he doesn't want the top job. This creates a unique opportunity: an ascendant Republican Party with a looming vacancy at the top.
There is no shortage of candidates to suit all Republican tastes. Blue-state Republicans have Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki and Mitt Romney. Social conservatives have Rick Santorum and Bill Owens. Establishmentarians have Bill Frist. Mavericks have John McCain and his buddy Chuck Hagel. Republican revolutionaries may well have Newt Gingrich (who is using the publication of his new book to test the waters). But the best candidate by far is a man who dare not speak his surname: Jeb Bush.
Think of all the qualities that make an ideal Republican champion and Jeb has them in spades. He is the governor of the archetypal swing state: Florida is a multicultural hodgepodge with a red-state north, a blue-state south and 27 electoral votes. He is something of a multiculturalist himself: his wife was born in Mexico, his three children were once dubbed “the little brown ones” by George senior, and he is a convert to Roman Catholicism. Neatly, his governorship runs out in 2006.
The Bush family has always regarded Jeb as the bearer of the family fortunes. He was not only much more hard-working than his elder brother (he started kindergarten a year early and graduated from the University of Texas in two-and-a-half years). He was also much more ambitious; as a child he wanted to become president, while George wanted to be a baseball star. One of the family's biggest political surprises came in 1994, when George won the governorship of Texas while his “big little brother” (Jeb is five inches taller than George) went down to defeat in Florida.
But Jeb is not just a goody-two-shoes. He is more of an ideological conservative than his elder brother. He drank deep of the products of conservative think-tanks at a time when George was drinking deep of the world's distilleries. During his first term as governor he slashed taxes by more than $1 billion, introduced America's first statewide school-voucher programme, appointed a pro-life Catholic to the state's Supreme Court, spoke of “blowing up” state agencies and took on just about every Democratic interest group imaginable, from the teachers' unions to minority lobbies. But he manages to hide what he describes as his “head-banging” conservatism behind an emollient exterior.
Only one problem haunts this gold-plated CV: the family name. The Bush family is now the most successful political dynasty in American history. The Kennedys racked up barely 1,000 days in the White House; the Bushes will have done four times that by the time George W. finishes his term. But would Americans really vote for a third Bush president in 20 years?
No less an authority on the subject than the matriarch of the family, Barbara, thinks the answer is no. She has proclaimed that two Bushes in the White House may be enough—for now. But it is easy to overestimate America's instinctive hostility to dynasties. Americans may be allergic to English kings, but look at their fondness for a line of Adamses, or Roosevelts, or Tafts. “We'll have Jack for eight years, Bobby for eight and Teddy for eight,” went a joke in the early years of the Kennedy administration. And both Bobby and Teddy ran for the presidency.
Dynasties bring huge benefits as well as potential costs. The Bush brand is worth millions in advertising, and it gives Jeb access to the most powerful fund-raising machine in American politics. The potential costs can be minimised if the other side can also be tarred with the dynastic brush. Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of the field of potential Democratic candidates. If she decides to make a run for the presidency—and Hillary signs are already appearing in Washington—then Jeb can reap all the benefits of his name while incurring few of the costs.
cont...
OTB
