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Why go nuke IRAN?!

cyrus

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At least one thing mullahs in Iran seems to be doing right for sure is that they have learned from the lessons of the Iraq Iran war, just the same as the many western nations learned from the WWII experience is that one's independence and security ties very much to one's self-sufficiency.
So for the past 15+ years they have been investing a good chunk of the Oil money into higher education and industrialization of the country. This in addition to the unprecedented growth in population have put a serious dent into the country’s energy consumption. It is estimated that within the next 20 years Iran will be a net importer of energy, not exporter. Even thought during the last 10+ years the country’s net exports have been steadily declining in favor of non-oil goods from 93% to 85% it still heavily relies on the oil money as its major source of foreign currency.
That is one of the main reasons why the moderates and the conservatives alike in Iran are all supporting the nuclear energy production as an alternative source of energy. They want to substitute the domestic use of gas & oil so these resources are free for exportation as well as to ensure that the future generations won’t be left without a reliable energy source once the oil starts to run out.
Now of course we all know that once you have so many reactors as they intend to have within the next 10+ years, they could turn them into military use should the security conditions dictates such necessities.
But does this mean that Iran currently is trying to make the bomb; I doubt it. It is just not rational under the current political conditions, to go that route before you have the means to do so as having a bomb or two doesn’t completely address all the Iran’s security issues and IMO mullahs know that very well!
One thing these mullahs are not is "stupid" and that is for sure, I am afraid!
 
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cyrus

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bbking said:
Boy someone really believes the propaganda coming out of Teran. Pu-lease, the mullahs interest is negotiation not alternate energy. They have a plentiful resource and are still selling gas at very low prices and in fact if they would exchange nuke with oil energy the cost to the avg person would go up dramatically. So that message of yours is a myth.

The reality is that Iran should have been able to make a nuke by now, the fact they haven't and the games they play with uranium enrichment tell me they know building a nuke is out of the question - now it's more of a game of what can we get for this.


bbk
Hmmm . ... Negotiations are about uranium enrichment for fuel and whether to have a nuke bomb now or later! Negotiations have never been about not building reactors for energy production! Use of nuclear technology for energy is guaranteed under the NPT agreements as long as the member’s states agree to IAEA safeguards & inspections thus it is not up for negotiation at least as far as Iran is concerned!
Building reactors as a source of energy is already a forth gone conclusion as they are coming on line shortly as I have tried to explain in my earlier post the rationales for it so you may differentiate the facts from fictions when some one on CNN says Iran doesn't need nuclear energy because they already have all these gas & oil reserves.
 

cyrus

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bbking said:
.....They have a plentiful resource and are still selling gas at very low prices and in fact if they would exchange nuke with oil energy the cost to the avg person would go up dramatically. So that message of yours is a myth.
........
bbk
As for the cost, I guess you didn’t fully grasp the first part of my initial post about the matter of national pride and self-sufficiency!
Yes, the initial cost of research & development is always higher at the beginning but that should never stop one from going forward if the goal is self-sufficiency!
 
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someone

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bbking said:
Boy someone really believes the propaganda coming out of Teran. Pu-lease, the mullahs interest is negotiation not alternate energy. They have a plentiful resource and are still selling gas at very low prices and in fact if they would exchange nuke with oil energy the cost to the avg person would go up dramatically. So that message of yours is a myth.

The reality is that Iran should have been able to make a nuke by now, the fact they haven't and the games they play with uranium enrichment tell me they know building a nuke is out of the question - now it's more of a game of what can we get for this.


bbk
I actually know someone who has consulted for the Iranian energy agency on this question. I gather that they actually are facing a future energy problem. To make matter worse, for domestic political reasons they are selling energy domestically at very low prices. This creates waste and reduces what they have available for exports. However, I understand that politically, increasing domestic energy prices is a non starter (just think of Canadians who claim to support Kyoto but scream every time the price of gas goes up) so they are looking into alternatives. That being said, I’m sure politics also enters into these questions. Nonetheless, there official position does have some basis.
 

someone

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cyrus said:
As for the cost, I guess you didn’t fully grasp the first part of my initial post about the matter of national proud and self-sufficiency!
Yes, the initial cost of research & development is always higher at the beginning but that should never stop one from going forward if the goal is self-sufficiency!
That type of "Pride" and goal of self-sufficiency is one reason they are poor. I understand that they have wasted huge amounts trying to develop a domestic automobile industry through subsidies and prohibitive tarriffs and other trade restictions. I am sure that example is not unique. I gather that in many cases they have attempted ignored the basic principle of international trade theory that you should produce what you have a comparative advantage in and trade witht the world for the rest.
 

cyrus

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someone said:
That type of "Pride" and goal of self-sufficiency is one reason they are poor. I understand that they have wasted huge amounts trying to develop a domestic automobile industry through subsidies and prohibitive tarriffs and other trade restictions. I am sure that example is not unique. I gather that in many cases they have attempted ignored the basic principle of international trade theory that you should produce what you have a comparative advantage in and trade witht the world for the rest.
International trade theory means nothing when you are not willing to surrender your independence in return. These were the lessons, they have learned from the Iraq, Iran war!
Thus, as an example, they have already grown the automobile industry to the point that one could argue it could rival the western standards in terms of fuel efficiency, performance and safety. I understand that they are now exporting a lot of passenger buses and heavy machinery/tractors to the rest of the third world countries in ME & Africa...
They are doing the same with many other industries including the aviation, i.e., the recent development of a 75+ sitter turbo jet, IRAN-104 which is a mid-range passenger airplane for domestic consumption.
This probably seemed necessary when USA refused to allow Iran to replace its aging Air fleet with newer airplanes from the Boeing as well as the Airbus since the Airbus engine apparently has over 30% American made components!
I would hardly call this waste but an investment in the future!
After all neither Boeing nor Airbus made much profits at the beginning some years ago nor would they be able to stay in business now without some subsidies from their respective governments.
 

ocean976124

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My question is "why not nuke Iran?" Would anyone miss it? Well, I mean besides Hammas?
 

cyrus

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ocean976124 said:
My question is "why not nuke Iran?" Would anyone miss it? Well, I mean besides Hammas?
Maybe Israel will miss it, j/k
 

BigHarv

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Don't want to be an American Idiot "Green Day"

Don't respond much, but to OCEAN 976124
"Arrogant American Idiot"
Your not arrogant, your just an idiot!

Peace out from Toronto, Canada.
 

PayPal

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ocean976124 said:
My question is "why not nuke Iran?" Would anyone miss it? Well, I mean besides Hammas?
Of course Iran would be missed...
Where would all the islamic terror organizations get their money, arms and support if the Ayatollahs weren't there?

The worlds Iranian backed 'freedom fighters' need Iran. Where would we all be without our citizens living under fear of suicide attacks, bombings, terror and all the other major exports that come from the wonderful regime in Iran. But these threats are getting boring, we need to allow them to get nuclear bombs too. That'll make things much more fun.
 

cyrus

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PayPal said:
Of course Iran would be missed...
Where would all the islamic terror organizations get their money, arms and support if the Ayatollahs weren't there?

The worlds Iranian backed 'freedom fighters' need Iran. Where would we all be without our citizens living under fear of suicide attacks, bombings, terror and all the other major exports that come from the wonderful regime in Iran. But these threats are getting boring, we need to allow them to get nuclear bombs too. That'll make things much more fun.
Your friends in Saudi Arabia!
In any case, I sympathize with your search for more fun! If you are a man of peace then may I suggest that you browse over to the escort section and look up some friendly neighborhood SP, there are a lot of funs to be had! But if you have a lot of energy then why not signing up with the Uncle Sam.
I have heard them always recruiting people of your caliber looking for fun in places like Iraq. Apparently there are still a lot of women and children remained to be slaughtered or prisoners to be abused! In either way, I am sure they can find something for you to have fun with. You never know, they may even send you to Israel to shoot some advance American weaponry into the refugee camps in the hope of killing some terrorist! Whatever the case may be, I am very pleased to be of some aide to you in search for more fun, as you know we in Canada are always happy to help our friendly neighbors in the south just as we did back then with the hostage’s crisis in Iran, or were you too young to remember? Anyway you do believe that we are always here to help?!
Peace out from Toronto, Canada to all of you too.
 
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ocean976124

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BigHarv said:
Don't respond much, but to OCEAN 976124
"Arrogant American Idiot"
Your not arrogant, your just an idiot!

Peace out from Toronto, Canada.
Ah, I see. Big Hammas supporter are you?
 

BigHarv

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ocean976124 said:
Ah, I see. Big Hammas supporter are you?
Not really! I actually support the brutal occupation of the Palestinian people, the expansion of Jewish settlements by divine right and the might to do so with Apache helicopters, F-16, F-15 fighter jets thanks to you peace loving, freedom spreading Americans. Hope you all went to church this Sunday!
 

ocean976124

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BigHarv said:
Not really! I actually support the brutal occupation of the Palestinian people, the expansion of Jewish settlements by divine right and the might to do so with Apache helicopters, F-16, F-15 fighter jets thanks to you peace loving, freedom spreading Americans. Hope you all went to church this Sunday!
Yes Israel isn't completely innocent. However, given that the Palestinians are committed to the destruction of Israel and the people they call "descendents of pigs and monkeys" I can't really side with anyone other than Israel...
BTW, what does church have to do with anything? I didn't realize opposing bombers who target children required church attendance...
 

cyrus

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ocean976124 said:
Yes Israel isn't completely innocent. However, given that the Palestinians are committed to the destruction of Israel and the people they call "descendents of pigs and monkeys" I can't really side with anyone other than Israel...
BTW, what does church have to do with anything? I didn't realize opposing bombers who target children required church attendance...
"descendents of pigs and monkeys"
Hmmm . . . Jews and Arabs are both cousins, racially speaking!
They are the native of north east Africa and part of ME.
Where Persians are Non-Arabs of Indo-European race called Arians . . i 'ran . . . i'ranians . . you get it?!
So don't come here and make this into a racial thing!
I am not an anti-Israeli nor I approve there methods of handling the occupation.
But if you really want to stop the suicide bombers then let the Palestinians have guns and tanks too, I am sure they would rather fight and die in a battle than blow themselves up to the Kingdome come in a hope of taking a few Jews with them!
 
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BigHarv

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ocean976124 said:
Yes Israel isn't completely innocent. However, given that the Palestinians are committed to the destruction of Israel and the people they call "descendents of pigs and monkeys" I can't really side with anyone other than Israel...
BTW, what does church have to do with anything? I didn't realize opposing bombers who target children required church attendance...
Where you say the Palestinians are committed to the destruction of Isreal, that is a notion from the past, held on to by a few fanatics but conveniently brought up by Isreal to justify their iron grip on the occupied territories. Heck, even Arafat recognized Israel's right to exist. I'm sure if you polled the Palestinians 95% would want to to live peacefully in a two state solution.
But after 30 odd years of occupation, when you have nothing to look forward to while you watch your lands bulldozed, your houses razed while new settlements go up I would be a little pissed too! Wouldn't you?
To me (and I don't condone the taking of innocent lives) the suicide bombers are a desparate cause and affect of the occupation.
Rather than taking sides should we not focus on "righting the wrongs" or I guess you share the mindset of your president "Your either with us or against us".
 

someone

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cyrus said:
International trade theory means nothing when you are not willing to surrender your independence in return. These were the lessons, they have learned from the Iraq, Iran war!
Thus, as an example, they have already grown the automobile industry to the point that one could argue it could rival the western standards in terms of fuel efficiency, performance and safety. I understand that they are now exporting a lot of passenger buses and heavy machinery/tractors to the rest of the third world countries in ME & Africa...
They are doing the same with many other industries including the aviation, i.e., the recent development of a 75+ sitter turbo jet, IRAN-104 which is a mid-range passenger airplane for domestic consumption.
This probably seemed necessary when USA refused to allow Iran to replace its aging Air fleet with newer airplanes from the Boeing as well as the Airbus since the Airbus engine apparently has over 30% American made components!
I would hardly call this waste but an investment in the future!
After all neither Boeing nor Airbus made much profits at the beginning some years ago nor would they be able to stay in business now without some subsidies from their respective governments.
First, I have to point out that your example of Boeing and Airbus is not a good one. In the case of an industry like this were each major player market power, it is possible that one country subsidizing its airline can improve its terms of trade and national welfare. This is one of the few exceptional cases were a deviation from free trade can be welfare improving. However, it is only the case when the other country does not respond. When the other country responds, welfare in both countries is worse than it would be under free trade. This is one reason WTO negotiations try to reduce these types of subsidies. The world welfare would undoubtedly be higher if both Europe and the Americans agreed not to subsidized either Boeing or Airbus. There is a famous paper by Brander and Spence (who happens to be a Canadian) on this type of situation.

With regard to the Iranian airline industry, you may have a point regarding the political problems in purchasing foreign planes. I was not aware of those problems.

As far as the automobile industry in Iran is concerned, I have yet to talk to any Iranian who has not complained about the cost of cars in Iran. They may be able to “rival the western standards in terms of fuel efficiency, performance and safety” as you say, however, only at a significantly higher cost in terms of resources that could be better allocated. I should point out that in the past many other countries have made the same mistakes regarding the auto industry, so the Iranians are not alone.
 

cyrus

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someone said:
......As far as the automobile industry in Iran is concerned, I have yet to talk to any Iranian who has not complained about the cost of cars in Iran. They may be able to “rival the western standards in terms of fuel efficiency, performance and safety” as you say, however, only at a significantly higher cost in terms of resources that could be better allocated. I should point out that in the past many other countries have made the same mistakes regarding the auto industry, so the Iranians are not alone.
I believe there were plans in 2004 to expand the mass production of domestic automobiles in the face of the fact that they have acquired the technological know-how. They were also to open the market to foreign imports (1) to help the huge demand as you mentioned (2) that the competition would be an incentive that could further help the domestic car manufactures stay competitive.
i.e., ***the Iran Khodro is one of the world's top 20 car manufacturers and expects to produce 600,000 vehicles in 2005 while France's Peugeot (PEUP.PA) and Renault (RENA.PA), have also signed deals to manufacture cars in Iran shortly***
Of course Iran has one big problem and that is factionalism that could keep Iran’s industrialization efforts and macroeconomic stability hostage by lowering productivity and increasing the waste!
But over all, I believe putting more money into R&D is the only way to achieve strength and self-sufficiency in face of unilateral trade embargos and hostilities even when you have to re- invent the wheel many times over.
 

ocean976124

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cyrus said:
"descendents of pigs and monkeys"
Hmmm . . . Jews and Arabs are both cousins, racially speaking!
They are the native of north east Africa and part of ME.
Where Persians are Non-Arabs of Indo-European race called Arians . . i 'ran . . . i'ranians . . you get it?!
So don't come here and make this into a racial thing!
LOL, you're a funny guy. I point out that the Palestinian leaders call Jews "the descendents of pigs and monkeys" and you accuse me of making it "a racial thing." Boy, those most be some good drugs you're on!
But if you really want to stop the suicide bombers then let the Palestinians have guns and tanks too, I am sure they would rather fight and die in a battle than blow themselves up to the Kingdome come in a hope of taking a few Jews with them!
Once again: LOL. The Palestinians turned to suicide bombing because conventional warfare failed for 30 years! Israel's neighbors finally realized that Israel's army and airforce is more than capable of defending itself from invasions so now they simply support terrorists as a non-direct way of attacking Israel.

Once again, Israel is not as innocent as newly fallen snow. But given the fact that they are surrounded by people who racially hate them and want to eradicate them from the face of the earth, there's not much else to do other than support them.
 

ocean976124

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BigHarv said:
Where you say the Palestinians are committed to the destruction of Isreal, that is a notion from the past, held on to by a few fanatics but conveniently brought up by Isreal to justify their iron grip on the occupied territories. Heck, even Arafat recognized Israel's right to exist. I'm sure if you polled the Palestinians 95% would want to to live peacefully in a two state solution.
Unfortunately you are wrong on both counts. Palestinian leadership has been saying one thing in English and another in Arabic. And public opinion for the terrorist organizations has been mostly positive over the past 5 years. Support has dipped below 50% again but we'll see how long that lasts.
Palestinian children are taught in school things like there was no Jewish temple in Jerusalem at any point in history, that the Jews kidnap arab children and harvest their organs, etc.
 
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