Good article from my favorite source:
It'll soon be time, at last, to vote
Jan 13th 2005
Though the election will be boycotted by many or even most Sunni Arabs, it should still offer Kurds and Shia Arabs a rare chance to choose their own leaders
AT LEAST in those parts of Iraq where the insurgents do not dominate, the election campaign has begun in earnest. Posters plaster the walls, at any rate in the Shia and Kurdish areas that contain a good three-quarters of the country's people. And though full lists of candidates' names are hard to find—and in some cases have yet to be drawn up (see our table)—Iraqis are gradually becoming aware of the main choices of party alliances and leaders on offer when some 5,500 polling stations open on January 30th. It is increasingly likely that turnout in the Sunni Arab areas, especially in the four out of 18 provinces most afflicted by the insurgency, will be dismally low. Nonetheless, most Kurds (who make up a fifth of the people) and Shias (some three-fifths) sound determined to vote.
Some groups, most notably the Iraqi List headed by the interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, are zealously soliciting votes, through the media, at press conferences and—most expensively—on pan-Arab satellite TV channels. At a recent Iraqi List “seminar� for (mainly Arab) journalists in a Baghdad suburb, activists for Mr Allawi's group handed each reporter who was kind enough to attend a one-hundred-dollar note in appreciation.
Other prominent groups are claiming to have the blessing of the country's top religious leaders. In particular, the United Iraqi Alliance, a broad coalition of Shia parties, most of them Islamist-inclined, has covered Baghdad's buildings with portraits of well-known ayatollahs alongside its logo. And a daring few candidates are braving the pavement, such as Fathallah Ismail, a disciple of the firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who charges headlong across the bustling crossroads of north-east Baghdad's Shia slums, handing out cards that puff his Nationalist Independent Cadres and Elites.
The Sunni Arab insurrection, which shows no sign of abating, has made campaigning in large parts of Iraq too dangerous. Even Mr Allawi now admits that people in “some pockets� of the country will not be able to vote. Fearful that their candidates will be assassinated, most of the main groups are not disclosing most of the names on their slates, beyond a few well-known figures. So voters are unsure of what many—maybe most—of the 84 parties and alliances and 27 individuals on the ballot actually stand for and, in many cases, who is running for them.
In the most violent regions, Iraqis may wait until election day before deciding whether to vote at all. More than 1m Iraqi expatriates in 14 countries, including the United States, various European states, Iran, and across the Arab world, have also been allowed to vote in special polling stations abroad. In Iraq, the Americans are hoping for a turnout of more than half of the 15m-odd eligible voters. Anything bigger than that will be deemed a success.
The outcome is highly unpredictable. The nearest thing to a certainty is that the Kurdistan Alliance, a joint list combining the Kurds' two main parties and a clutch of minnows, will sweep the Kurdish north-east—and may well give the Kurds a disproportionate number of seats since their turnout, in the safest part of Iraq, is likely to be the highest. Parties representing Iraq's Christians, Turkomen (ethnic Turks), Yazidis (who follow a creed close to a Roman-era cult) and other minorities may pick up a few seats: all a party needs, to win a seat in the 275-strong assembly, is 1/275th of the total vote.
The main battle, however, is being waged between the Alliance (widely known as “the Shia house� or “the clerics' list�) and Mr Allawi's lot. A few weeks ago, it was assumed that the Alliance would gobble up most of the Shia vote. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shia cleric, had played a notable part in creating the Alliance. Mr Allawi's allies, however, point out that Mr Sistani has not explicitly endorsed it, and they have fiercely attacked the Alliance's adherents for—allegedly—telling Shia voters that they have a religious obligation to vote for it.
cont.....
OTB
It'll soon be time, at last, to vote
Jan 13th 2005
Though the election will be boycotted by many or even most Sunni Arabs, it should still offer Kurds and Shia Arabs a rare chance to choose their own leaders
AT LEAST in those parts of Iraq where the insurgents do not dominate, the election campaign has begun in earnest. Posters plaster the walls, at any rate in the Shia and Kurdish areas that contain a good three-quarters of the country's people. And though full lists of candidates' names are hard to find—and in some cases have yet to be drawn up (see our table)—Iraqis are gradually becoming aware of the main choices of party alliances and leaders on offer when some 5,500 polling stations open on January 30th. It is increasingly likely that turnout in the Sunni Arab areas, especially in the four out of 18 provinces most afflicted by the insurgency, will be dismally low. Nonetheless, most Kurds (who make up a fifth of the people) and Shias (some three-fifths) sound determined to vote.
Some groups, most notably the Iraqi List headed by the interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, are zealously soliciting votes, through the media, at press conferences and—most expensively—on pan-Arab satellite TV channels. At a recent Iraqi List “seminar� for (mainly Arab) journalists in a Baghdad suburb, activists for Mr Allawi's group handed each reporter who was kind enough to attend a one-hundred-dollar note in appreciation.
Other prominent groups are claiming to have the blessing of the country's top religious leaders. In particular, the United Iraqi Alliance, a broad coalition of Shia parties, most of them Islamist-inclined, has covered Baghdad's buildings with portraits of well-known ayatollahs alongside its logo. And a daring few candidates are braving the pavement, such as Fathallah Ismail, a disciple of the firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who charges headlong across the bustling crossroads of north-east Baghdad's Shia slums, handing out cards that puff his Nationalist Independent Cadres and Elites.
The Sunni Arab insurrection, which shows no sign of abating, has made campaigning in large parts of Iraq too dangerous. Even Mr Allawi now admits that people in “some pockets� of the country will not be able to vote. Fearful that their candidates will be assassinated, most of the main groups are not disclosing most of the names on their slates, beyond a few well-known figures. So voters are unsure of what many—maybe most—of the 84 parties and alliances and 27 individuals on the ballot actually stand for and, in many cases, who is running for them.
In the most violent regions, Iraqis may wait until election day before deciding whether to vote at all. More than 1m Iraqi expatriates in 14 countries, including the United States, various European states, Iran, and across the Arab world, have also been allowed to vote in special polling stations abroad. In Iraq, the Americans are hoping for a turnout of more than half of the 15m-odd eligible voters. Anything bigger than that will be deemed a success.
The outcome is highly unpredictable. The nearest thing to a certainty is that the Kurdistan Alliance, a joint list combining the Kurds' two main parties and a clutch of minnows, will sweep the Kurdish north-east—and may well give the Kurds a disproportionate number of seats since their turnout, in the safest part of Iraq, is likely to be the highest. Parties representing Iraq's Christians, Turkomen (ethnic Turks), Yazidis (who follow a creed close to a Roman-era cult) and other minorities may pick up a few seats: all a party needs, to win a seat in the 275-strong assembly, is 1/275th of the total vote.
The main battle, however, is being waged between the Alliance (widely known as “the Shia house� or “the clerics' list�) and Mr Allawi's lot. A few weeks ago, it was assumed that the Alliance would gobble up most of the Shia vote. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shia cleric, had played a notable part in creating the Alliance. Mr Allawi's allies, however, point out that Mr Sistani has not explicitly endorsed it, and they have fiercely attacked the Alliance's adherents for—allegedly—telling Shia voters that they have a religious obligation to vote for it.
cont.....
OTB