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China as the new superpower

CH812

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May 15, 2004
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Anything that goes up must come down! so just like the Romans and British I believe in the next 50 years the USA's power and influence in the world will fall and China will emerge as the worlds new superpower....... any opinions on this?
 

DonAngelo

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...not only the USA will feel this; the EU as well. The huge demand of commodities in Asia has already a huge impact on our wallets.
 

Ranger68

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We've been through this in another thread.
;)
Yes, I believe that's going to happen.
 

antaeus

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USA's world power/influence fall - yes. I think mainly due to debt.

China grow to superpower - qualified yes. I think it is false to conflate current healthy prognosis and physical population with the inevitable crown of superpower. The population, occupations and lifestyle are still 80-90% rural. I think this almost alone is sufficient as a check on real growth to superpower status.

In a crude analogy, it's like the automotive world. GM was dominant, now their almost equaled by 3 or 4 others. I tend to believe that in the 50 year time frame mentioned, US = EU = China, with some idiosyncracies.
 

CH812

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May 15, 2004
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China still has issues with human rights that they need to sort out internally, but I believe right now they are on the track to have the most powerful military in the world.

Not to mention their space program and they really irked the US when the said they were going to put the real "first man on the moon"........

And with China's growing power its only going to cause more tension with countries like N. Korea, Taiwan, India and Pakistan....

So im just going to sit back in this beautiful country and how things unfold....
 

fozzy

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Jun 16, 2003
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CH812 said:
[...]and China will emerge as the worlds new superpower
Where have you been for the past half century? Maybe you've been listening to too many patriotic U.S. media channels, who repeat gleefully that the United States is the world's only remaining superpower. Surely the Korean War removed any doubt as to China's status as a military superpower.

You are correct, though, in that China has emerged (forget "will emerge" or "is emerging", it's too late for that) as a huge economic influence on the world. And the U.S., in part because of its rapidly growing debt and the ramifications to the U.S. currencey and tax rates, will lose its leading position compared to the EU and China.

Just take a look at the number of companies - especially recently troubled telecom companies - who are announcing sales to China in order to project a robust image.

I think the West is in for a big and very unpleasant surprise.
 

assoholic

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Aug 30, 2004
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.., you totally ignore the US's total Air Domination and much more advanced weaponry. That the US could not defeat China with theses advantages says alot about the Chinese effort in Korea. MaCarthur predicted thery would totally annihalate the Chinese in the field . He was wrong, and at one point wanted to use Nuclear Weapons.
As well you are not takeing into consideration that China had just recently imerged from a huge Civil War.
Lastly Trueman did threaten the Chinese with a Nuclear strike. Even without any way of retailating Moa would not back down.
 
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onthebottom

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In lue of refighting the korean war I would make the following observations:

China has an enormous population.

China has a large economy.

China's economy is growing fast (9%) but this is not sustainable.

China's per capita GDP is 5,000 (est) - US is about 36,000

China is a net importer of aid.

China's environment is very threatend.

China's banks are basically insolvent.

China's currency would drop dramatically if it was floated.

China can't / won't join BASEL II.
OTB
 

assoholic

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My point was on the Batllefield the US could not defeat the Chinese in Korea, without the nuclear option despite their Technologically advanced Weaponry and their total domination of the skies.
That was 50 years ago, the Military Gap had been substantially closed since then. US overwhelming Military Superiority is very much overblown.
 

WoodPeckr

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Back then, like now I believe, both China and Russia (USSR) had massive armies. Hitler couldn't kill enough Russians though he went through them like butter. China and Russia cite distrust of each other as a main reason for their immense, several hundred, army divisions which they claim are needed to protect their respective borders.

While present US military might is impressive now, is does appear stalled dealing with the counter-insurgency in 'third world' Iraq even after Iraq was weakened by about 10 years of world sanctions. It is not getting better in Iraq right now. Generals in both China and Russia have most likely noted this. The longer this Iraqi debacle continues, the worse it makes the US military look. US generals like Eisenhower knew a land war with China had to be avoided because it would lead to a nuclear exchange, no ifs ands or buts. In the end it is manpower, the grunts, that wins a war and has to mop things up. Here for all our technology the US pales against China, unless you want to kill Chinese on a scale that would make Saddam's mass killings look like the excercises of an amateur.
 

assoholic

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..no that is your interpretation , that the US "chose to" not fight an offensive War. I think you are totally wrong, the US knew it could not defeat the Chineses without a massive militarization that they knew the US public would not support.
So they stayed in their fortified positions and defended. Either way, the fact is the Chinese fought the US to a draw, period.
 

assoholic

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..if you think the US public would have supported a increase in the US commitment in Korea you dont know what your talking about. The US public could care less about Korea.
They would not have supported a bigger commitment. Without the support of the people no Nation can hope to win a major War.
As in Nam, once the upport was not there Miltary Hubris set in. With soldiers querstioining why they should sacrifice their lives in a cause most people did not support.
Either way, the War was fought , and the Chineses were not beaten, so it was a draw.
 

assoholic

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..no , I always said it was a draw, my point being that to come up with a draw against an opponent with better weaponry and total dominance of the air. After having just emerged from a civil War was a very impressive feat.
 

onthebottom

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What does a war fought 50 years ago have to do with China being a credible power in the world?

Will China rise 60 years from now, who knows, the world today looks pretty different than it did 60 years ago. All the naysayers are saying is that China will have to change dramatically if it going to move to the next level. Will the US fall, who knows but it has awfully good fundamentals - better than any other country at the moment - but 60 years is a long time. Bush's grandchildren will be President by then ;-)

OTB
 

onthebottom

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China is becoming a military power, but the only power that really matters is power that can be projected. China could not invade Taiwan for instance, a fact that shows the limitations on its military power. If China wants to build a massive army and feed it, great but if it wants to use it, well that's another story.

North Korea has 1,000,000 men under arms, is it a powerful nation? Can it project that power?

It takes more then men - that are cannon fodder - to be a powerful country.

OTB
 

Ranger68

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China most certainly could invade Taiwan.
The US would have to keep a carrier battle group right there to prevent it, but the Chinese have the capabilities to invade, most certainly.
 

onthebottom

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Ranger68 said:
China most certainly could invade Taiwan.
The US would have to keep a carrier battle group right there to prevent it, but the Chinese have the capabilities to invade, most certainly.
That's the point though isn't it, with one of (what 9 or is it 12) CVGs the US can thwart China's #1 strategic goal. That's just expense without power.

OTB
 

danmand

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onthebottom said:
China is becoming a military power, but the only power that really matters is power that can be projected.
With a few notable exceptions, almost all countries have defensive forces, not offensive forces, because their only purpose is to defend their country.

Only countries with emperialistic objectives see the need for offensive forces that be projected anywhere on the planet.
 

Ranger68

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So, just to clear things up, you're NOT talking about the ability to project power - which the Chinese clearly can - you're talking about the ability to project power without possibility of prevention.
Your statement was false.
That the US can *attempt* to prevent an invasion is not arguable - that they would suffer heavily in doing so is also not arguable, operating so close to China's shore. Also, that they could do so with *one* CVG is very very debatable. I think you need to step back and consider that tactical situation.
 
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