Putin planning powerful superpower coalition

WoodPeckr · Nov 21, 2004

Russian President Putin planning to glue together the most powerful superpower coalition in the world

India, China, Russia and Brazil

Sudhir Chadda, Special Correspondent

November 10, 2004 "India Daily" --Russian President Putin is taking a lead role in putting together the most powerful coalition of regional and superpowers in the world. The coalition consists of India, China, Russia and Brazil. This will challenge the superpower supremacy of America as well as the European Union. The Chinese are concerned about American and European influence over the world. So is India, Brazil and Russia. Russians need Brazil badly. Brazil is in South America in the American corridor. According to Startfor, a strategic think tank, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Brazil Nov. 21-23, he likely will talk economic issues with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva. However, Putin has bigger ambitions: He wants to establish a long-term Russian footprint in Latin America in order to expand Moscow's geopolitical influence in the region. Brazil is very open to the coalition concept where these large countries support each other in term of trade, economics, international politics and defense.

According other think tanks, this coalition will have an overwhelming influence over the United Nations. Russia and China are permanent members of the security council. India and Brazil are in the process of becoming the same. In terms of population, the coalition will have three quarters of the world population, largest amount of natural resources and largest pool of technical and scientific talent.

Copyright: India Daily.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7336.htm

papasmerf · Nov 21, 2004

I can see stretching regional to include India and china

But I just can't see how these village idodits think Brazil is in their region.

Sargon · Nov 21, 2004

This is an old rumour. I read about this kind of plans right after the American attack on Afghanistan. I also think that (even if it was a good idea) the probability that something like this could come about is extremely low. It is possible though that the Russians might be spreading this rumour to put pressure on EU to let them in.

On the other hand, both Russia and China have grievances aginst the U.S. Chinese are unhappy about the American support for Taiwan and U.S. and the western countries lecturing them on human rights. The Russians, I'm sure, are not pleased with increasing U.S. influence in central Asia and Georgia. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if it became public that the American have surrepticiously supported the Chechens in the past.

India's relations with U.S. could sour quickly if the U.S. curtails out sourcing. Also, the U.S. wants India to give up its nuclear arms. It may not be a hot issue now but sooner or later it is going to come to a head and I think the Indians are smart enough to know that.

As far as Brazil is concerned, I think every country in South/Central America wants to end American hegemony over them so I can see Brazil wanting to be a member of such an alliance. It won't please the Americans and I'm sure the CIA will do its best to keep Brazil out of it and, given the track record of U.S. domination of the Americas, will probabaly succeed.

So, IMHO, improbable scenario but not totally impossible.

Cinema Face · Nov 21, 2004

I agree with Winston. A coalition of these countries is absolutely ludicrous.

They could never get along.

Russia and China hate each other. They almost went to war in the 60’s. China needs more land and resources. They have had a great deal of interest in taking a portion of Siberia. Russia doesn’t trust them, nor should they.

Russia is an economic basket case. They have a GDP similar to Ontario.

India is making some progress but they have a lot of social problems.

Brazil is another economic basket case. They have a huge national debt and lots of social problems.

China is the most powerful of the bunch. I doubt they would go for a deal like that.

All of them are far too dependent on the US.

Don · Nov 21, 2004

Pretty much everyone nailed this on the head already.

No way China, India and Russia can put aside their personal differences much less their economical differences.

WoodPeckr · Nov 21, 2004

bbking said:
....... we should be concerned about Putin's imperial ambitions before it's too late.

bbk

Not sure if it is imperial designs as much as a longing to restore Russian stature to what it was when the defunct USSR was looked on as an superpower military equal to the USA.

Boris Yeltsin introduced Putin to the Russian people by saying that "he will be able to unite around himself those who will revive Great Russia in the new, 21st century".

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met with Mr Putin in August 2000, he told that "he's certainly no threat to the Russian democracy".

danmand · Nov 21, 2004

bbking said:
Thank you for saving me the time of posting all the reasons that Putin will not be able to put this together. Most importantly, the dependence on the European and North American economies would not make such an alliance workable. If the report is true that Putin, is bouncing this idea around, we should be concerned about Putin's imperial ambitions before it's too late.
bbk

Just stay focussed on the US imperial ambitions. Russia will logically end up together with the EU, will fit in a lot better than for example Turkey and some of the other new members.

Ranger68 · Nov 21, 2004

I agree that I think this alliance is nonsensical.
China and ANYBODY is hard to believe.
China and Russia seems ludicrous beyond belief.
Russia, it seems to me, falls naturally into the European sphere of influence, although Germany and Russia may not ever be able to be trustworthy allies, much to France's disappointment.
As well, China may not need anybody, in twenty years or so, to be able to mount a credible "threat" to the US monopoly on global superpowers.

jwmorrice · Nov 21, 2004

Here's an interesting article from Newsweek on current relations between Europe and Russia: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6542892/site/newsweek/

jwm

assoholic · Nov 21, 2004

..bottom line is it is not in the US and therefore our interests. the degree of co-operation among the group is a seperate issue, and one that will only be increased by the policies of W.

Ranger68 · Nov 21, 2004

Yes, strangely enough, it's been the Germans themselves who've been pushing for closer ties with Russia recently.
Time will tell.

Ranger68 · Nov 21, 2004

I think Russia is in better shape than many anticipated they would be at this point, so soon after their utter "defeat".
They've handled the loss of superpower status quite gracefully (much more graceful than, say, the Brits), and the transition to a free market economy is underway. Things are bound to be tough, but economically, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. Their final defeat came undeniably from an attempt to match US military spending.
However, a case might be made that the *US* economy is due for much worse times than the Russian in the near future.

Peeping Tom · Nov 21, 2004

China has no desire to use western political philosophy of our systems. There is the time-proven method of oriental despotism, it has served their society for several thousand years and won't be changing. Bolshevism exists there in name only these days.

Stacy said:
Thus, resulting in China's cautious interest of pursuing western political system.

Peeping Tom · Nov 21, 2004

Russia is in Russian conditions right about now ... not for nothing that in the political language of the past century people spoke of Russian conditions. Their economy will take about 50 years to equal that of europe at the very best ... not that catching europe is any major accomplishment.

Apart from their ICBM's, they were hardly a superpower ... sure, they played at the MAD table and that is a pretty exclusive club. But that was all they did. How many third world clients did they fund, and why is it that those clients never left the third world? How far apart is our client, South Korea, from Soviet NK?

I remember the fall. A reporter was covering a sit down strike and one dude, in the middle of streetcar tracks, said in broken English: "No cigarettes, no work" ... some superpower.

btw England never lost its military might but did shed an empire. There is a difference. A superpower, not quite, but a major badass indeed. I wouldn't want them on my case if I were leading a State.

Ranger68 said:
I think Russia is in better shape than many anticipated they would be at this point, so soon after their utter "defeat".
They've handled the loss of superpower status quite gracefully (much more graceful than, say, the Brits), and the transition to a free market economy is underway. Things are bound to be tough, but economically, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. Their final defeat came undeniably from an attempt to match US military spending.

Peeping Tom · Nov 21, 2004

No linky?

Ranger68 · Nov 21, 2004

To argue that the USSR was *not* a superpower is a bit mystifying ......

And that Britain wasn't either??

Perhaps we're differing on the definition of "superpower".

To be able to affect the course of global affairs in a regular, forceful manner, to be able to project military might around the world, to be able to influence, at will, by means both subtle and forceful, the governments of nations in your sphere - that's being a superpower. Both Britain and the USSR were superpowers until relatively recently.

WoodPeckr · Nov 22, 2004

Ranger68 said:
.....To be able to affect the course of global affairs in a regular, forceful manner, to be able to project military might around the world, to be able to influence, at will, by means both subtle and forceful, the governments of nations in your sphere - that's being a superpower. Both Britain and the USSR were superpowers until relatively recently.

I think your definition of superpower is broad enough to include both Russia and China right now. Russia still has enough ICBMs to destroy the world several times over and China has a dual purpose space program with unknown nuclear military capability. China is a member of the nuclear club and given the fact we don't or didn't know what Saddam, Iran and N Korea are doing, how can we know what China may have developed so far.

danmand · Nov 22, 2004

Anybody who doubts that China is a superpower should consider when he last bought something that was NOT made in China.

Read a book on economics, BB.

Ranger68 · Nov 22, 2004

It's not *entirely* about military might, unless you appear quite ready to use it. In the case of the nuclear arsenals of China and Russia, I don't think anyone is all that concerned that they're about to use them, including the US. This is NOT why they're developing ABM defenses, although I suppose it's still a useful notion to have in your back pocket in case you need to sell it very hard.

Also, neither country has very much political influence elsewhere. Neither (anymore) has client nations scattered around the globe, governments who fall in line without hesitation. China has North Korea, on their border, and that's about it. Russia has none, anymore. Neither has far-flung military bases, or the might to project military power around the globe - again, discounting the thought that they might lob an ICBM or two somewhere, a notion which nobody voting in the UN, say, is seriously concerned about.

China may very shortly be a global superpower, as their economy rises to the occasion. To this point, they're not there. To say that because lots of things you buy are made in China MUST mean they're an economic giant is to deny reality. By no economic measure is China yet a global superpower. They'll be there, I have no doubt, but that day has not yet come.

Russia's economy is, relatively speaking, in such bad shape that it's hard to imagine anyone believing that they're a superpower. That bird has flown the coop.

danmand · Nov 22, 2004

You are ignoring China at your peril. China has a GdP (on a purchasing power exchange rate basis) of $4-5T vs US $10T.
From a year ago, its change in GDP 9.1%, in industrial production 15.7%, trade balance 20.3 %, current account 45.9%. Its foreign reserves $514B(excluding gold).

However, it will take Chine 10 years to develop a banking system and let the currency float.

Putin planning powerful superpower coalition

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