Conservatives Win N.B.
- Thread starter Darts
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Indeed, with Greens and People's Alliance holding six seats and the two traditional parties just one seat apart, it's stupid to be saying any Party "won". That sort of simple-mindedness belongs with the obsolete buggies and horse-races that gave us the FPTP metaphor.
Let's see what sort of government New Brunswicker's representatives put together. That is what elections are for.
There doubtless were lights burning much of the night at Old Government House in Fredericton.
Three takeaways in some ways a bloodbath for the Liberals four ministers were defeated. Also a significant Language divide, most francophone ridings having voted Liberal and most anglophone ridings P.C. Finally a breakthrough for the Peoples Alliance which is philosophically more in line with the Progressive Conservatives.
Believe it likely the Progressive Conservatives will be asked to form the government, even when all the counting and the alliances are done it still comes down to one more seat
Three takeaways in some ways a bloodbath for the Liberals four ministers were defeated. Also a significant Language divide, most francophone ridings having voted Liberal and most anglophone ridings P.C. Finally a breakthrough for the Peoples Alliance which is philosophically more in line with the Progressive Conservatives.
Believe it likely the Progressive Conservatives will be asked to form the government, even when all the counting and the alliances are done it still comes down to one more seat
As you know, the real issue is whether they can win and keep winning votes in the House. Being asked is just the first small step.
Much as it's mildly encouraging to see Canadians waking up to being bought by Liberal governments with their own money PLUS loans taken out in our names, is there possibly a more irrelevant jurisdiction in Canada than New Brunswick?
It's well captured (albeit resisted, to good comic effect) in this David Myles song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6zoXjHNCi0
It's well captured (albeit resisted, to good comic effect) in this David Myles song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6zoXjHNCi0
Let's see. It has almost to the person, the same population as Northern Ontario, which could similarly be a province on its own — distinct culture, geographic challenges, resource management and all that. North Dakota, Alaska, DC, Vermont and Wyoming (not to mention territories) are all smaller than either, and one shouldn't forget it was those low population levels that gave Li'l Donny his skewed Electoral advantage.
We might also note that This Fair City alone has a much greater population than every Province but BC, Quebec and Alberta (without Toronto, Ontario would still have enough people to make ten Manitobas. We could make another two)
Perhaps you should pick a more precise word than 'irrelevant' to convey your intended meaning.
Until there is a vote on any issue. & that happens to be the purpose of the legislature.
Then the independents get to pick one of either the liberals or PCs to form a government
The greens line up with the liberals & Peoples Alliance sides with the PCs & then you have a New PC government by one seat
Cons got 22 seats & 121,300 votes. Libs got 21 seats & 143,791 votes. Peoples Alliance 3 seats 47,860 votes; Greens 3 seats 45,186 votes; NDP 0 seats 19,039 votes. (25 seats required for majority).
Libs got one less seat, but 22,500 more votes. So .. who actually won?
Libs got one less seat, but 22,500 more votes. So .. who actually won?
No one. By that system the professional pols will keep playing their games at the people's expense. The people who voted lost.
Going by percentages, from Wikipedia with my rounding errors: The Liberals had 38% (should translate to 18 or so seats) of the vote. the PC's 32% (15), the People's Alliance 10% (5), the NDP 8% (4) and the Greens 5% (2)
But thanks to FPTP, the Greens did much better than they deserved, and the NDP far worse. For the Big Old Parties of the centre, the arithmetic of power is about the same either way. And the professionals should see the discontent abroad in the land is almost equal to the waning appeal of either of the BOPs, who trade the middle with each other.
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It's that dopey word win that's keeping you confused: Who 'won' your Senate elections? Where does it say that? What difference does it make? What matters is power.And Canadians make fun of the way we in the states elect our officials
So did the Conservatives win NB or not?
KK
Difference is, our 'winners' get to be the Cabinet and take the Top Job, but if they lose a vote, they also lose their power. There might even hafta be a whole new election. Your guys are just stuck in there, with the power to make their same dumb moves until the calendar kicks them out.
And if you really want to know, the Liberals wound up with the power, the issue is whether they can hang onto it in all the votes to come.
Whatever forms will not last. Looks right now that Gallant will remain Premier. With a Federal election in a year - there are very few windows of opportunity for a re-run without major election fatigue. So either this Govt falls really quickly, or there's a very shaky Govt in NB for at least a year and a half. With Gallant staying on as Premier - I would bet that a non-confidence vote will be a done deal at the first opportunity.
A confidence vote with a switch of governments perhaps, but a new election? I'd bet not, for the reasons you've mentioned. Without serious Party policy reversals like "We were wrong to say what we did in the last election" the party standings might be tweaked just a touch, but it would suit all of them better to keep an inoffensive government (or governments) running while they gather strength and platform ideas for a serious push, and wait for someone else to shoot themselves in the foot.
The real question here is what happens to the moribund NDP, that collected all those loyal votes without a single seat to show for it. There's low-hanging fruit if I ever saw it. And Jagmeet tied up running for a federal seat in BC at the far end of the country.
Sauve qui peut!
For good reason, it's just most other democracies should laugh at our elections the same way wecmock your, much for the same reason,, outdated system.And Canadians make fun of the way we in the states elect our officials
So did the Conservatives win NB or not?
KK
Seats are what counts in a parliamentary system
Votes determine who holds the seats, seat count determine who gets a chance to form the government
A one seat lead is precarious & they will likely have to hold another election by 2020
