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Democrats have a 12 point lead over republicans as midterms approach, poll says

Charlemagne

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Jul 19, 2017
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DEMOCRATS HAVE A 12 POINT LEAD OVER REPUBLICANS AS MIDTERMS APPROACH, POLL SAYS

BY JENNI FINK ON 9/23/18 AT 3:51 PM

A recent poll conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal signaled that the midterm elections could pose trouble for Republicans and President Donald Trump.

The poll, taken between September 16 and September 19, found that Democrats are leading Republicans in congressional preference by 12 points. Sixty percent of people polled also wanted to see a significant change in direction from the one President Donald Trump has been taking.

But the same poll found that almost 70 percent of voters polled were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the economy. The poll saw a six percent increase in satisfaction with the economy since June, the last time it was conducted, and a 13 percent increase since April 2017.

Of those surveyed, 26 percent considered themselves very or somewhat liberal and 37 percent identified as very or somewhat conservative. When it came to their opinions on various issues, the majority of those polled would likely vote for a candidate who:

Favors allowing young adults who were brought into the country illegally by their parents to stay in the United States legally to attend college or to work
Supports cutting the tax rate for business and corporations, as well as, cutting taxes for most Americans
Favors stricter regulations on assault and military-style firearms

Forty-seven percent of people said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who favors a single-payer system that allows the government to provide healthcare.

“I do believe Democrats will win back the House of Representatives,” Representative Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, toldThe Washington Times. “Our candidates are in a strong position.”

However, other Democrats pointed to the 2016 presidential election and warned about being overly confident about a guaranteed win.

“This is no time for confidence. This is no time for braggadociousness or bluster,” Booker said. “If there’s any complacency, if there’s any resting on their laurels, we need to go back to how people felt in the early days of November 2016.”

Trump has been actively encouraging people to vote during the upcoming midterm election and disparaged Democrats for trying to use the issue of Russian collusion to hurt Republicans during the midterm.

“While my (our) poll numbers are good, with the Economy being the best ever, if it weren’t for the Rigged Russian Witch Hunt, they would be 25 points higher! Highly conflicted Bob Mueller & the 17 Angry Democrats are using this Phony issue to hurt us in the Midterms. No Collusion!” Trump tweeted.

Similarly to other midterm elections, this year’s, scheduled to take place on November 6, is being seen as a review of Trump’s performance. The possibility has also been raised that if Democrats take over the majority in Congress, they’ll move forward with an attempt to impeach the president.

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-leading-republicans-midterm-election-new-poll-says-1134913
 

Bud Plug

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Aug 17, 2001
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While, traditionally, the mid terms almost always go against the party controlling the WH, the mid terms are very much regional races, so I wanted to find out WHERE the people who were polled were registered. I gave up after a short search. My guess is that either there was no control for restricting the poll to those living in areas affected by mid terms or at least there was no attempt to balance the number of respondents between those areas. Here's a link to the actual poll: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18955 NBCWSJ September Poll.pdf

The one thing everyone should have learned from 2016 is that polls are not to be trusted and/or the distribution of support matters much more than national numbers.
 

shack

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Oct 2, 2001
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While, traditionally, the mid terms almost always go against the party controlling the WH, the mid terms are very much regional races, so I wanted to find out WHERE the people who were polled were registered. I gave up after a short search. My guess is that either there was no control for restricting the poll to those living in areas affected by mid terms or at least there was no attempt to balance the number of respondents between those areas. Here's a link to the actual poll: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18955 NBCWSJ September Poll.pdf
So you are assuming 1) both NBC and WSJ do not know how to structure polls to be as close as possible to a true representation and,
2) because one poll is off, that every poll is off.

BTW, the 2016 poll was correct. Clinton got 3,000,000 more votes than trump.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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While, traditionally, the mid terms almost always go against the party controlling the WH, the mid terms are very much regional races, so I wanted to find out WHERE the people who were polled were registered. I gave up after a short search. My guess is that either there was no control for restricting the poll to those living in areas affected by mid terms or at least there was no attempt to balance the number of respondents between those areas. Here's a link to the actual poll: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18955 NBCWSJ September Poll.pdf

The one thing everyone should have learned from 2016 is that polls are not to be trusted and/or the distribution of support matters much more than national numbers.
You go, bud plug.

'Course bud is ignoring me so this is the perfect time to make some fun of him.
All the Trumkins or Trumptards don't trust the media or the polls, and the big orange guy also says they are wrong.
So the right wingers aren't worried, which means lots won't go out to vote.

So you go, bud, keep arguing that Trump is doing fine.
 

Bud Plug

Sexual Appliance
Aug 17, 2001
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So you are assuming 1) both NBC and WSJ do not know how to structure polls to be as close as possible to a true representation and,
2) because one poll is off, that every poll is off.

BTW, the 2016 poll was correct. Clinton got 3,000,000 more votes than trump.
Ok, but she got those votes IN THE WRONG PLACES! Which might be the same problem with this poll. I don't recall NBC or WSJ putting out a poll before the 2016 election saying, Clinton is going to get more votes, but Trump is going to win because he's going to win more states, do you?

p.s. My comments about this have nothing to do with what NBC or WSJ could do if they chose to. They are about what they did do.
 

bver_hunter

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2005
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Ok, but she got those votes IN THE WRONG PLACES! Which might be the same problem with this poll. I don't recall NBC or WSJ putting out a poll before the 2016 election saying, Clinton is going to get more votes, but Trump is going to win because he's going to win more states, do you?

p.s. My comments about this have nothing to do with what NBC or WSJ could do if they chose to. They are about what they did do.
The 2016 elections were down to 3 or 4 points when you go with the polls just before the elections. But 12 points means a definite lead for the Democrats. Hopefully it will rise to 20 points just before the elections, as that would benefit Canada and the trade tariffs between Canada and the USA.
 

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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So you are assuming 1) both NBC and WSJ do not know how to structure polls to be as close as possible to a true representation and,
2) because one poll is off, that every poll is off.

BTW, the 2016 poll was correct. Clinton got 3,000,000 more votes than trump.
2016 polls were not correct. Getting 3m more votes based on California and NY is not correct polling in a country with a specific electoral system that equalizes votes between states. Plus, they routinely oversampled the Democratic voters. That has been pointed out even here, during the campaign.
 

omegaphallic

Well-known member
Mar 26, 2010
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Democrats are going to blow it possibly over this Kavanaugh allegation. It's complete bullshit, but they are like a dog with a bone on it. I hope I am wrong, I want the Republicans punished for supporting Trump, and sadly as stupid as the left has gotten they are still better then that clown.
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
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Room 112
So you are assuming 1) both NBC and WSJ do not know how to structure polls to be as close as possible to a true representation and,
2) because one poll is off, that every poll is off.

BTW, the 2016 poll was correct. Clinton got 3,000,000 more votes than trump.
No the polls weren't right. They projected a decisive Clinton victory in the electoral college.
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
47,100
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Toronto
Ok, but she got those votes IN THE WRONG PLACES...
...to win the election. But the poll did not measure who would win but who was more popular nationally. It had Clinton with a slim lead and that is what happened. So the polling was correct. You have no reason to doubt the results of this poll.
 
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