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Why Russia Can’t Do Anything About Other Countries Killing Its Troops in Syria

onthebottom

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Perhaps if China wants to cozy up to Russia they should shoot down a plane or two...

Why Russia Can’t Do Anything About Other Countries Killing Its Troops in Syria
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/russian-plane-shot-down-syria-israel.html

One of the darkest fears about the conflict in Syria, particularly since Russia began its full-fledged military intervention in 2015, was that through miscommunication or overreaction, the increasing number of foreign militaries operating in the country could come into direct conflict with each other, sparking a wider, more dangerous war. (More dangerous, that is, for countries other than Syria. For Syrians, it’s been an unmitigated hell for seven years.) It’s either relieving or profoundly depressing to note that as this dangerous scenario now happens with some regularity, the various actors around Syria simply shrug and go on with their grim business.

The latest incident took place Monday when Syrian anti-aircraft missiles shot down a Russian warplane off the coast near the city of Latakia, where Russia has an air base, killing 15 personnel on board. In the aftermath of the tragedy, Russia blamed not its Syrian allies but the Israelis. According to the Russian defense ministry, Israeli jets in the area put the Russian Il-20 in the path of Syrian air defense systems. In a Twitter statement, the Israel Defense Forces acknowledged carrying out an airstrike against a “facility of the Syrian Armed Forces” but said its jets were back in Israeli airspace by the time the Russian plane was fired upon. The IDF said it held the Assad regime, along with Iran and Hezbollah, responsible for the incident.

Either way, the diplomatic spat ended quickly. After a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Putin blamed the incident on a “chain of tragic accidental circumstances.”

Russia and Israel certainly aren’t allies when it comes to Syria. Russia, along with Iran, is the main backer of the Assad regime, while Israel has been waging a quiet war against Iranian proxies in Syria. Israel has increased those airstrikes this year, including Saturday’s attack on an Iranian arms shipment at the Damascus airport. Russia has generally not objected to these strikes and receives warning of them via a deconfliction system (though there have been some close calls involving Israeli strikes on facilities where Russian personnel are present).

Netanyahu and Putin have had a number of recent high-profile meetings, including one in July after which the Israeli leader said that Russia had agreed to keep Iranian forces away from Israel in exchange for Israel accepting Assad’s continued rule. A few days later, Israeli concerns appear to have been a major topic at the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki. Putin would like to be the leader that negotiates a peaceful end-state in Syria—on his terms, naturally—and knows that he can’t do that unless the Israelis feel relatively secure, a tall order given that leaving Iranian-backed Assad in power will likely be part of any final deal.

All of this is to say that even if the Russians are fed up with Israel conducting airstrikes near them and blame the Israelis for the killing of 15 troops on Monday, there’s little political incentive for Putin to make a big deal about it.

This is becoming something of a pattern after Russians are killed not by rebels or terrorists but by other countries’ militaries. The most obvious comparison for this incident is the 2015 downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish F-16s in 2015.

While this was a major diplomatic incident at the time, Russian-Turkish relations have improved dramatically since then, as both countries’ relations with Europe and the United States have declined. Earlier on Monday, Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a potentially major deal to forestall a disastrous military offensive in Idlib.

There was also this year’s incident in February, when the U.S. launched an airstrike against pro-Assad forces believed to be attacking Kurdish positions, killing a number of Russians—estimates range from “dozens” to about 300—embedded in their ranks. Even as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo boasted about killing “a couple hundred Russians” in his confirmation hearings, Russian statements on the incidents have downplayed the attack, stressing that the men killed were “volunteers” rather than Russian army personnel.

Russia is in a very strange position in Syria. It’s arguably the key outside actor in the conflict and, more impressively, has decent relationships, or at least working relationships, with most of the other key players, many of whom are in open conflict with each other: the Assad regime, the Saudis and the Gulf states, Iran, Israel, Turkey, the Kurds, the United States. (That last one’s a little more complicated.)

Because of these delicate relationships, Russia does not appear to be in a position to respond or even voice major objections when one of those actors kills its troops, accidentally or in some cases deliberately. This can’t be an encouraging message for the troops and “volunteers” in Syria who Putin is putting in harm’s way.
 

Aardvark154

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My feeling is that the Russian Air Force got a certain cathartic value from blaming Israel, rather than having to publicly state that their ally Syria is trigger happy and incompetent.
 

danmand

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Wait and see. Russia is likely to enforce a no fly zone over western Syria.

I realize you two are disappointed that Russia did not sink the French frigate so that we could have had your wet dream of WW III.
 

Aardvark154

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Wait and see. Russia is likely to enforce a no fly zone over western Syria.
Rather doubt it.

Russia has largely gotten what it wanted in Syria - thanks in large measure to former President Obama. Russia most certainly does not want to have it all go south at this point by getting into a shooting war with American, European or Israeli aircraft.
 

mandrill

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Rather doubt it.

Russia has largely gotten what it wanted in Syria - thanks in large measure to former President Obama. Russia most certainly does not want to have it all go south at this point by getting into a shooting war with American, European or Israeli aircraft.
Sounds like Vlad and the Izzies have already kissed and made up. VaVla is trying hard to limit the fall out from Russian deployments in Syria. As Aardy says, he's already got what he wanted out of the wretched country.
 

kstanb

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Apr 25, 2008
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their ally Syria is trigger happy and incompetent.
machine gun totting monkeys

and there is no chance on earth Russia will enforce a no-fly-zone, they simply lack the capability. Tthat being said, they have some sort of no-fly zone in some key areas near their main bases; this is done by deploying highly advanced anti-air missiles, any aircraft entering that space is at the mercy of the Russians unless somehow the missiles are destroyed, but no sane western leader will directly target a Russian objective
 

nottyboi

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What an idiotic article. What did the US do when Iraq hit the USS Stark with a missile? Not a fucking thing. Americans get killed every day in the line of duty. Russia has lost a 1-300 people in Syria, the US has lost 2372 in Afghanistan... I would argue Russia is much closer to success then the US is...
 

Polaris

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What an idiotic article.
What that article was, it was just basic American propaganda.

American propaganda is different than other countries' propaganda. It tends to be much more one sided, in that it assumes that other people do not know or cannot think.

The flip side of Russia cannot act in Syria because that it can upset it relationships there, is that that they have good working relationships there. That probably came at the expense of the USA.

When the Americans only offer up the propaganda, let them do it. They cannot do anything else. We know the score that way.

:ambivalence:
 

Aardvark154

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It is a tit for tat. The U.S., U.K. and Israel all steer clear of the Russian bases in Syria. The Russians steer clear of U.S. and British advisers in Syria.
 

basketcase

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Sounds like Vlad and the Izzies have already kissed and made up....
Supposedly there is a lot of coordination with Russia for strikes on Syria. The US did it with their strike a while back and Israel seems to do it regularly. Seems Russia doesn't give a shit about strikes on Assad, Iran, or Hezbollah as long as they can get their troops out of the way.
 

danmand

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Rather doubt it.

Russia has largely gotten what it wanted in Syria - thanks in large measure to former President Obama. Russia most certainly does not want to have it all go south at this point by getting into a shooting war with American, European or Israeli aircraft.
Russia Will Supply S-300 System To Syria Within Weeks After Israeli Raid

It appears Israel has paid a huge price for last week's attack on Syria which led to the accidental "friendly" fire downing of a Russian reconnaissance plane with 15 personnel on board as the door could now be forever shut on striking targets in Syria with impunity. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has announced plans to deliver to its advanced S-300 air defense system to Damascus within two weeks.

Prior plans to deliver the system, which is considered vastly more effective and can strike at a greater range than Syria's current S-200 and others, were nixed after Israeli threats that delivery would constitute a "red line" for which Israel must act.

The Russian MoD acknowledged this and said the situation has "changed" upon announcing its intent to follow through on what Syria has already purchased: “In 2013 on a request from the Israeli side we suspended the delivery to Syria of the S-300 system, which was ready to be sent with its Syrian crews trained to use it,” the MoD statement said.





Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said early Monday, "A modern S-300 air defense missile system will be supplied to the Syrian Armed Forces within two weeks. It is capable of intercepting air assault weapons at a distance of more than 250 kilometers and hit simultaneously several air targets."

Significantly, Syria's systems will be integrated with Russian systems via the S-300, in order to prevent instances of "blind" firing (or failure to have friend or foe identification capabilities).

Russia had in previous statements blamed Israel for the last Tuesday incident in which a Russian Ilyushin-20 reconnaissance plane was accidentally brought down by an aging Syrian S-200 defense system after Russia had scrambled its jets to respond to an attack by four Israeli F-16s on Syrian government targets.

Shoigu said the S-300 system will prevent such future mishaps: "The command posts of Syrian air defense forces and units will be equipped with automated control systems only supplied to the Russian armed forces. This will facilitate centralized control over all forces and resources of the Syrian air defense, monitor the situation in the air, and ensure o
The Russian-made S-300s are widely acknowledged to be far superior in their capability and reach that Syria's current S-200 system. If installed — something which Russia has promised will happen in two weeks time — Syria might very well become nearly untouchable.

Israel has long claimed to be acting primarily against Iran inside Syria, often firing from over "neutral" Lebanese airspace, but additional new electronic countermeasures to be erected along with the S-300 system will hinder this, per RT:

The third measure announced by the Russian defense ministry is a blanket of electronic countermeasures over Syrian coastline, which would “suppress satellite navigation, onboard radar systems and communications of warplanes attacking targets on Syrian territory.”
Shoigu said the measures are meant to “cool down ‘hotheads’ and prevent misjudged actions posing a risk to our service members.” He added that if such a development fails to materialize, the Russian military “would act in accordance to the situation.”

All of this is precisely the game-changer that Israel's leadership has long worried about as they've sought to maintain "freedom of action" in Syria, according to prior statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But as a Haaretz report noted previously, the range of the new defense system will give Damascus the ability to detect potentially hostile aircraft from point of origin: "With Putin's S-300, Assad's army could even 'lock-on' IAF aircraft as they take off from bases within Israel." And as one Israeli defense analyst put it, "Israel should be worried."
 

Aardvark154

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Russia Will Supply S-300 System To Syria Within Weeks After Israeli Raid

Significantly, Syria's systems will be integrated with Russian systems via the S-300, in order to prevent instances of "blind" firing (or failure to have friend or foe identification capabilities).
Russia had already sold the system to Syria, further I suspect the real impetus is preventing the trigger happy Syrians from shooting down another Russian aircraft, blaming Israel is merely the fig leaf.

One would only think that Russia will also wish to prevent the Syrians from spinning an already tense situation into World War III by attempting to shoot down IDF aircraft outside of Syrian airspace.
 

danmand

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Russia had already sold the system to Syria, further I suspect the real impetus is preventing the trigger happy Syrians from shooting down another Russian aircraft, blaming Israel is merely the fig leaf.

One would only think that Russia will also wish to prevent the Syrians from spinning an already tense situation into World War III by attempting to shoot down IDF aircraft outside of Syrian airspace.
It means that Russia decides who flies over western Syrian.

But as a Haaretz report noted previously, the range of the new defense system will give Damascus the ability to detect potentially hostile aircraft from point of origin: "With Putin's S-300, Assad's army could even 'lock-on' IAF aircraft as they take off from bases within Israel." And as one Israeli defense analyst put it, "Israel should be worried."
 

Aardvark154

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It means that Russia decides who flies over western Syrian.

But as a Haaretz report noted previously, the range of the new defense system will give Damascus the ability to detect potentially hostile aircraft from point of origin: "With Putin's S-300, Assad's army could even 'lock-on' IAF aircraft as they take off from bases within Israel." And as one Israeli defense analyst put it, "Israel should be worried."
Which would then put Russia and Syria in the position of world condemnation and likely bring the U.S. into the mess and that is presuming that it doesn't go all out of control.

This is a very dangerous situation for Syria and Russia. V.V. Putin likes to push, but I doubt he has any desire to be involved in a thermonuclear war.
 

danmand

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Which would then put Russia and Syria in the position of world condemnation and likely bring the U.S. into the mess and that is presuming that it doesn't go all out of control.

This is a very dangerous situation for Syria and Russia. V.V. Putin likes to push, but I doubt he has any desire to be involved in a thermonuclear war.
For you black is white and white is black. Nothing will happen if Israel and USA respect the sovereignty of Syria.
 

nottyboi

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Which would then put Russia and Syria in the position of world condemnation and likely bring the U.S. into the mess and that is presuming that it doesn't go all out of control.

This is a very dangerous situation for Syria and Russia. V.V. Putin likes to push, but I doubt he has any desire to be involved in a thermonuclear war.
Putin is not pushing it the US is, but the Russians are using the loss as a pretext to make Syrian airspace MUCH more dangerous for the western alliance. This is to counter Western threats to attack Syria if Idlib is attacked. Once the S300 net is in place, expect attacks on Idlib to ratchet up, and the Russians will observe how willing the West is to attack Syria with S300s in the hands of the Animal Assad.....

I guess we will get to find out if S300's prowess is myth or ledgend If the S300 proves not super effective, then Russia already has S400 and S500, but you can bet they fully expect S300 to draw blood and will make a fortune upgrading the S300 installed base.
 

Frankfooter

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Putin is not pushing it the US is, but the Russians are using the loss as a pretext to make Syrian airspace MUCH more dangerous for the western alliance. This is to counter Western threats to attack Syria if Idlib is attacked. Once the S300 net is in place, expect attacks on Idlib to ratchet up, and the Russians will observe how willing the West is to attack Syria with S300s in the hands of the Animal Assad.....

I guess we will get to find out if S300's prowess is myth or ledgend If the S300 proves not super effective, then Russia already has S400 and S500, but you can bet they fully expect S300 to draw blood and will make a fortune upgrading the S300 installed base.
Yup, the question is whether Israel keeps bombing Syria until they lose a jet to an S300 or if they just stop now.
 
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