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Market Analysis

Night_Hawk2012

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Feb 27, 2012
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Just for fun. Let's do a poll to see if we think a short-term top market is in. Even though I remain bullish for market in medium-term market (i.e. few months to a year), I believe market is about approaching a short-term top (i.e. for a month to two) and therefore, expecting a short-term correction as soon as market breaking down below support trendline from rising wedge.

 

39ajaxmale

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Jan 13, 2012
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Just for fun. Let's do a poll to see if we think a short-term top market is in. Even though I remain bullish for market in medium-term market (i.e. few months to a year), I believe market is about approaching a short-term top (i.e. for a month to two) and therefore, expecting a short-term correction as soon as market breaking down below support trendline from rising wedge.

Considering the TSX ytd is already reporting 6% growth, and most economists had said they were forecasting 2% for the year.. if forecasts are right, it does suggest a slump coming up. Until the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages start to show a decline, I'd say we're still holding strong.

In a techinical analysis environment, until the 10 or 20 day moving average falls below the 50 day moving average.. it supports growth, and buying opportunities for the future.
 

Night_Hawk2012

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Feb 27, 2012
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Technical speaking, market is due for about 5% to 10% of correction before moving higher. However, with European Central Bank doing second liquidity injection today, big players can't afford to play opposite with feds. Indeed, market guys working at ibanks are feeling very bullish in short-term period.

However, with Nasdaq 100 index in green for straight 8-week already, it will become rare to see another green close by the end of this week.

 

39ajaxmale

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Jan 13, 2012
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well.. with only 1 day left in the week.. up 40 points on the Nasdaq 100.. looks like a 9 week winning streak.
 

Night_Hawk2012

New member
Feb 27, 2012
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Despite European Central Bank's latest liquidity injection of 777bn pounds throughout this week, below WEEKLY screen shot showing risk appetite from big players continue to decline as they are selling shares quietly. This does not mean stock market will fall right away. It just means a lot of risks if you are holding onto stocks at this moment.



Mini-chart #1 currently shows 42.43 % of stocks trading above 20-day moving average compared to 82% at the end of January.
Mini-chart #2 currently shows only 66.29 % of stocks trading above 50-day moving average.
Mini-chart #3 currently shows only 67.54 % of stocks trading above 200-day moving average.
Mini-chart #4 currently shows only 287 stocks making new high
Mini-chart #5 currently shows volatility index didn't make lower low while market making higher high.

To those who might not be familiar with what moving averages are. Below chart shows stock market has been trading above 20, 50 and 200 moving averages.

 
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