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NFL/NCAA/NHL/NBA betting thread

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freestuff

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Ok, so anybody have any thoughts on the last week of the NFL?
I mentioned in another thread about the dilemma on betting on the Giants-Cowboys game (Giants are terrible favorites and Cowboys are chokers and are led by "Brett" Romo). But I guess I'll take the inconsistent team over the chokers (Giants -3).
The other interesting game is Detroit -3.5 over GB in GB. I guess this line is telling us that GB is resting most of their starters. And I believe Detroit wants to win so they don't have to play NO in the first round. (Lions -3.5)
NO -9 over Carolina -- anybody think that Brees and most of the starters play a half or less? Brees got the record and since I'm assuming that SF gets the 2nd seed and the bye then Payton will want to rest his starters. (Carolina +9)
And finally Tebow -3.5 over the "chefs." Hmmm. KC can toss the ball around and Orton will want some revenge for being let go by Denver. And you know this is going down to the wire with a 50+ FG attempt. So I'm leaning toward Chefs +3.5
Thoughts?
 
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freestuff

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NCAA -- Holiday Bowl.
The line is currently Baylor -9 over Washington (dropped 1/2 point since it opened). Apparently all the "sharps" are on Huskies but the public loves RGIII so the line is probably going to stay put. I guess I must be a square because I like Baylor - Pac12 has shown me nothing so far and RGIII can score through the air and on the ground - people are saying he could be the #2 QB taken in this upcoming NFL draft.
 
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Neverwin88

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freestuff said:
And I believe Detroit wants to win so they don't have to play NO in the first round. (Lions -3.5)
NO -9 over Carolina -- anybody think that Brees and most of the starters play a half or less? Brees got the record and since I'm assuming that SF gets the 2nd seed and the bye then Payton will want to rest his starters. (Carolina +9)
And finally Tebow -3.5 over the "chefs." Hmmm. KC can toss the ball around and Orton will want some revenge for being let go by Denver. And you know this is going down to the wire with a 50+ FG attempt. So I'm leaning toward Chefs +3.5
Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I have read somewhere that New Orleans is not going to rest and just going to play hard - but I will believe it when I see it especially if they get a safe lead midway/3Q thru the game.
I like KC + 3.5 there as well with the Orton factor, but I am not sure whether I am confident enough to put money on it with the playoff spot on the line. Plus you're betting against God ;)
Especially in the last week of the season, I really don't like putting my money on any of the lines with big spreads (NO, SF, or even NE to a certain extent) where the favourite already has a spot lock-up where its hard to predict when/if starters will be pulled. If anything, the action might be bigger in college football this week with the amount of options available.
I'm also on Baylor but I am hoping the line will fall a little bit to -8.5 or at least pay a bit less juice on the spread. Didn't post in time so it might sound like hindsight but I have Notre Dame +4 today
 
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gcostanza

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For those interested, Canada is -9 -145 at Pinnacle, -9.5 -110 at Bet365 over Denmark tonight.
 
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freestuff

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Neverwin88 said:
Plus you're betting against God ;)

I'm also on Baylor but I am hoping the line will fall a little bit to -8.5 or at least pay a bit less juice on the spread. Didn't post in time so it might sound like hindsight but I have Notre Dame +4 today
Click to expand...
God seems to like 60+ yard FGs.
Wow, you got lucky on getting the Irish +4 -- all I saw was +3.5 -- and then you really got lucky with the Bears.
 
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freestuff

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Insight.com Bowl -- Oklahoma (-13.5) vs Iowa
Ok, so this is the "classical" situation where you have a good team playing a crappy bowl. So do they even want to be there? Hmmm. Me thinks not so I'm going to buy the hook and take Cyclones.

An aside, McCarthy is actually thinking of playing Rodgers? WTF? Why? If he does start, I can't see him playing more than 1 Q.
 
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gcostanza

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freestuff said:
Insight.com Bowl -- Oklahoma (-13.5) vs Iowa
Ok, so this is the "classical" situation where you have a good team playing a crappy bowl. So do they even want to be there? Hmmm. Me thinks not so I'm going to buy the hook and take Cyclones.
Click to expand...
Iowa State is playing in the Pinstripe Bowl against Rutgers.
 
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Neverwin88

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Never a big fan of proline, I tell everyone I know that plays to put money online instead, but this is a week where I might advise putting a play on proline. Some lines that have moved..alot elsewhere is still available for a very good price. All lines here are listed with 2.5 pt difference (or more)

Proline Line (Current Vegas Line)
WAS +9.5 (+7)
TB +13.5 (+9.5)
DET -3 (-6.5)
HOU +3.5 (+1)

Other games worth considering if you want a bigger payout
IND +4.5 (+3)
CAR +8.5 (+7)
 
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freestuff

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Ugh. And that's why you should not bet on the last week of the NFL.
Seriously, can anyone stop the Saints' offence?

Proline is for suckers -- I should know, I had a ticket with Det -3, Carolina +9.5 and Giants -3. NO just KILLED Newt and the cats and Matt Flynn has just thrown his FIFTH TD pass.
 
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Neverwin88

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freestuff said:
Ugh. And that's why you should not bet on the last week of the NFL.
Seriously, can anyone stop the Saints' offence?

Proline is for suckers -- I should know, I had a ticket with Det -3, Carolina +9.5 and Giants -3. NO just KILLED Newt and the cats and Matt Flynn has just thrown his FIFTH TD pass.
Click to expand...
No disagreement here - Proline sucks. But when you get 4 games like I listed where the movement was for 2.5+ pt, it was worth a $20. Obv this is the week that the books make a killing even with the line movement.

If not for the Houston fumble recovery for 6 pts at the end today I would be in an even bigger hole
 
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bangminton

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I have played the pointspread discrepancies for the past few years fairly religiously and I have to say 2011 has been one of the terrible ones for folks who look for Proline values. Glad to see 2012 is here.

I will always believe in betting on the OLG lines that are off from the books but the tricky part is we have to get 3 or 4 (preferably) games correct and that's not an easy thing.
 
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freestuff

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bangminton said:
I have played the pointspread discrepancies for the past few years fairly religiously and I have to say 2011 has been one of the terrible ones for folks who look for Proline values. Glad to see 2012 is here.

I will always believe in betting on the OLG lines that are off from the books but the tricky part is we have to get 3 or 4 (preferably) games correct and that's not an easy thing.
Click to expand...
I'd rather play teasers online than proline "discrepancies."
 
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freestuff

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Fiesta: Ok St (who should be playing the BCS championship game against LSU) over Stanford -- I think the line is around 4 now (I got them at 3.5). Cowboys have more firepower than Cardinals.
 
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bangminton

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freestuff said:
I'd rather play teasers online than proline "discrepancies."
Click to expand...
To each his own my friend. I have been playing online as well since 2001 and let me tell you it is not as easy as people make it out to be. The books are still kicking around for a reason...for every disciplined bettor who knows what he is doing, there are 2 *gamblers* who have to bet on everything or at least the games they watch on TV, just to make it more *exciting*.

I don't mean to hijack this thread, freestuff, and certainly do not insinuate you are an undisciplined gambler by any stretch. Just want to point out the pitfalls of online gaming, especially to the young bucks who maybe inclined to throw something down for the actions.

The OLG is set to unveil online gaming of their own sometimes next year or the year after. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Continued success my friend!
 
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freestuff

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Wow another bad beat.

NP bangminton -- I started the thread so people could post their opinions.

I like teasers because Vegas is pretty good at setting the "right" line.

I heard that OLG will be setting up single betting options but they'll be taking around 20-25 cents juice.
 
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gcostanza

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World Juniors Semi-Finals tonight

Canada -550
Russia +390
Total 6.5 O-120 U-110

Sweden -300
Finland +230
Total 6.5 O+120 U-150

Russia provides terrific value, Finland is worth a small wager.
The Sweden/Finland game should stay under the total, but no real value there.
The Canada/Russia game is a toss up as to the total.
 
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