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Green Bay -2.5 (44)

freestuff

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Jul 6, 2008
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So, what's your pick -- pointspread and/or over/under?
I've heard that a lot of Pitt $$$ will come in late so I wonder if we'll have GB -1 or even at a pk just before kickoff.
TBH, I was really surprised when this line came out. Sure, Steelers almost lost to NYJ but the same thing could be said for GB who almost lost to a 3rd string QB (and Rodgers got knocked around pretty good). So I think a win against NYJ is more impressive than a win against Bears with a 3rd string QB. Oh, if Urlancher had turned that pick into a TD, maybe we would be talking about Pitt being a 7 point favorite over Chicago. Yeah, I had $$$ on the Bears.
And what would the line have been if NE had snuck into the POs? NE -3 over GB?
Well, I'm going with Pitt (moneyline) -- no real point in taking 2.5. Maybe buy 1/2 a point and get 3? And that over/under is too high. Chicago's D slowed down Rodgers (after the first 2 drives) so I think Pitt can do the job and Pitts likes to run the ball down your throat so I like the under.
What about crazy props? I think there's one involving the length of the national anthem and another on Fergie's first outfit for the SB halftime show.
 

gcostanza

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2010
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Green Bay has moved to -3 and the total to 44.5 at Bet365.com

I think the Over (44.5) is worth a play.
 

rld

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Oct 12, 2010
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Also like th under. Two best scoring defenses in the league going head to head.
 

Serendipity

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Nov 23, 2009
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Pittsburgh wins outright 33-27 (IMHO) and I feel very strongly that the over is the play....so much so that I have a very large bet on play. Remember that the total 1st opened @ 46 and has dropped down to 44. The books are doing that to drive a split for the total # of bets they take.

Lots of passing in this game which will lead to td's on offence and/or td's on defence with interception returns possible for both squads.
 

Serendipity

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Nov 23, 2009
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Also like th under. Two best scoring defenses in the league going head to head.
Do you not realize that your pick is the opposite of your analysis?? How can (2) best scoring defenses help your pick for the game to be under? Do you think they are so good that both the PIT & GB offenses will not put points on the board? lol.
 

Serendipity

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I feel very strongly that the over is the play....so much so that I have a very large bet on play. Remember that the total 1st opened @ 46 and has dropped down to 44. The books are doing that to drive a split for the total # of bets they take.

Lots of passing in this game which will lead to td's on offence and/or td's on defence with interception returns possible for both squads.
Did anyone take my advice?
 

freestuff

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Well, I guess I was wrong. But I didn't realize Pittsburgh will be giving GB 3 huge turnovers which all resulted in TDs. Oh well. There's always next season -- whenever that's going to be.
 

rld

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Do you not realize that your pick is the opposite of your analysis?? How can (2) best scoring defenses help your pick for the game to be under? Do you think they are so good that both the PIT & GB offenses will not put points on the board? lol.
Actually my pick (though wrong) was bang on with my analysis.

Pitt gave up about 15.5 pts/game and GB 16 or so. Thus on average they gave up about 32 pts/game combined. I expected the defenses to do a better job than they did. Also each defense was ranked higher than their respective offense.
 

Serendipity

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Nov 23, 2009
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No. You were wrong. You did not account for any points being scored by either defense. Betting the over total was a gift from Vegas. Easiest play of the year!
 

rld

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No. You were wrong. You did not account for any points being scored by either defense. Betting the over total was a gift from Vegas. Easiest play of the year!
So, by your logic I should have anticipated that both defenses would score a touchdown? Do their season stats bear that out?
 

Serendipity

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YES!! You finally get it.....they were the 2 of the best scoring defenses in the league. Odds were VERY GOOD that one if the BOTH would get points on defense. Just trying to help you if you take gambling seriously. Maybe you enjoy throwing your money away???
 

rld

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Oct 12, 2010
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YES!! You finally get it.....they were the 2 of the best scoring defenses in the league. Odds were VERY GOOD that one if the BOTH would get points on defense. Just trying to help you if you take gambling seriously. Maybe you enjoy throwing your money away???
Green Bay and Pitt each scored 1 defensive touchdown in the regular season.

And I am supposed to expect that each team will match their 16 game defensive touchdown total in the Superbowl?

Really?
 
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