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Land properties up north...

richaceg

Well-known member
Feb 11, 2009
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Would you consider purchasing land up north around Keswick, Georgina, Pefferlaw, Innisfil at current economic situation? It seems like the value right now are pretty decent. I'm talking about land only here.
 

SkyRider

Banned
Mar 31, 2009
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Heard that the average price of a house in Canada increased 7% annually over the past 10 years. That means house prices roughly doubled from 2000 to 2010.
 

takeout44

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Oct 29, 2004
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If you are looking for a return down the road, real estate is always a good investment (don't forget the basic rule of location-location-location).
 
B

burt-oh-my!

Actually, not true. Japanese real estate prices are still well down from their peak 21 years ago. and read this fascinating article from 2006, which was remarkable considering what has happenned since then.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/03/world/europe/03iht-tulips.html

Excerpts;

Like-minded experts include Christopher Mayer of Columbia University and Joseph Gyourko and Todd Sinai of the Wharton School, who focus on what they call "superstar cities," places so desirable that they not only are not headed for a correction but they also can sustain "ever-increasing" prices compared with less-sought-after cities.

What such optimists are missing, Shiller says, is a long,historical perspective. "The fundamentals that they cite in support of their reassuring assessments are surprisingly weak at explaining historical prices," he writes in a recent paper. Reading the data as an economist leads Shiller to conclude that the market will go south. In addition, he says that studying the erratic but rhythmic rising and falling of prices over time - in other words, acting more like a historian than an economist - reinforces this conclusion.

"Looking at the Herengracht data is very instructive," he said, "because you can see 50-year intervals of growth, then it turns around.


......

But what does "up" mean? The most surprising thing about Eichholtz's study is that it contradicts a maxim of the real-estate profession. "There is a myth which says that real-estate values go up significantly over time, and that this is especially true for central city locations," Eichholtz said. "When I began to study the Herengracht, I didn't know what I would find, but the data ended up challenging that myth."

That is to say, where everyone from your wise old uncle to the broker who sold you your house holds it as gospel that real estate is one of the best long- term investments, this longest of long- term indices suggests that, on the contrary, it sort of stinks. Between 1628 and 1973 (the period of Eichholtz's original study), real property values on the Herengracht - adjusted for inflation - went up a mere 0.2 percent per year, worse than the stingiest bank savings account. As Shiller wrote in his analysis of the Herengracht index, "Real home prices did roughly double, but took nearly 350 years to do so."
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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Actually, not true. Japanese real estate prices are still well down from their peak 21 years ago.
The trick to making money in real estate is LOCATION and TIMING. You could have a great location but you will still lose money if your timing is off. BTW: Will we ever see the Nikkei at 39,000 again in our lifetime?
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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I'd rather look south, than north.....i.e the USA.
I think Brookfield is doinf exactly that but they invest in commercial properties (usually malls). Residential properties is simply too high maintenance and subject to political whims (tenants also vote in the U.S.).
 
B

burt-oh-my!

The trick to making money in real estate is LOCATION and TIMING. You could have a great location but you will still lose money if your timing is off. BTW: Will we ever see the Nikkei at 39,000 again in our lifetime?
Almost certainly, if you compound 5% at 35 years you will get a quintuple. I believe Japan, having had a very bad two decades, will achieve at least 5% per year going forward.
 
B

burt-oh-my!

I think Brookfield is doinf exactly that but they invest in commercial properties (usually malls). Residential properties is simply too high maintenance and subject to political whims (tenants also vote in the U.S.).

That seems to make sense to me. I can't believe that this d=ivergence we have seen between Canadian and US real estate will persist.
 

Rockslinger

Banned
Apr 24, 2005
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I believe Japan, having had a very bad two decades, will achieve at least 5% per year going forward.
Won't happen. Japan is aging and quickly depopulating. They also have virtually no immigration to make up for their low birth rate. 99.9% of the people in Japan are pure laine Japanese. Plus, they do not have a labour cost advantage like the PRC. The Nikkei at 10,300 might actually be the high water mark for the rest of this century.
 
B

burt-oh-my!

Yeah, everyone knows what you just wrote though. Known bad news is not bad news at all as far as the stock market is concerned. Things can change. And labour costs? Of course somebody always has a lower labour cost. So what? That's because they are less productive.

OK, we wager a beer on it. See you in 35 years.

Just be aware - things always look bleak at the bottom.
 
B

burt-oh-my!

Or better still, give me a country other than the united states (my co-number one place to invest) that you think will beat Japan over the next two years, and i will bet you a beer that japan beats it.
 

duang

Active member
Apr 17, 2007
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Heard that the average price of a house in Canada increased 7% annually over the past 10 years. That means house prices roughly doubled from 2000 to 2010.
And that is useful if we can go back to 2000 and purchase or if past performance is a guarantee of future performance [which is a commonly heard as a disclaimer that past performance is NOT a guarantee of future performance].

Not to mention that if I recall correctly it took the Toronto market 12 or 13 years to recover back to the highs of 1991 once the prices started to drop.

That's not to say that a specific property can't do very well if it is well chosen.

D.
 

splooge

New member
May 5, 2010
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San Jose, CA
Heard that the average price of a house in Canada increased 7% annually over the past 10 years. That means house prices roughly doubled from 2000 to 2010.
Not so. I bought a house in Barrie for $187,500 in 1999. Sold in 2004 for $225,900. Today that house is only worth $230,000.
 

SkyRider

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Mar 31, 2009
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I bought a house in Barrie for $187,500 in 1999. Sold in 2004 for $225,900. Today that house is only worth $230,000.
The 7% is an average. For every house that sold below the average there is a house that sold above.
 

pro123

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Oct 11, 2006
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First of all, it is very hard to get the mortgage for land only if you do require mortgage. I would not invest in Land only as very hard to sell it back. Keswick, Georgina, Pefferlaw, Innisfil will probably take years for your money to grow. It also depend how long you want to invest too. Don't count on Real Estate Market to keep going up as current Market is still bubbling. I agree Real Estate market is good for long Term Investment.
 

jem4u

New member
Jan 18, 2011
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The area is an excellent investment, but do it soon. There is a lot of interest in the area which is being compounded by the completion of the 404 extension in the second quarter of 2012. Further to that, Newmarket has recently declared that there will be no further new development within its boundries and Georgina is a mere ten minutes up the road.

In April 2008 I bought a house in Pefferlaw which is about fifteen to twenty minutes east of Keswick, but still in Georgina (in other words, even further away from the more popluated areas of York). The intention of this is for more of a long term investment and maybe I'll retire up there later, love the lake - who knows. Anyway, I paid 260 at that time which if you look back was at a peak in the market before it fell in the fall. Having said that, I have just had a private and a bank evaluation of the property earlier this month for a possible refinance at a lower interest rate - the bank's rep evaluated it at 320 and the private one I hired said 332. Not even four years there, purchased it during the peak and have already seen very significant growth.

In my opinion, I think that investing in the area is sound decision. Good Luck!!
 

TeasePlease

Cockasian Brother
Aug 3, 2010
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Prudent investment should be based on current cash flows.

Capital appreciation is speculation. Look at it as icing on the cake.
 

Mencken

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
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Would you consider purchasing land up north around Keswick, Georgina, Pefferlaw, Innisfil at current economic situation? It seems like the value right now are pretty decent. I'm talking about land only here.
You would want to know the values very very well before you buy. Farmland or recreational land is very hard to value (or appraise) as it doesn't trade very often and no two pieces are the same. So it is easy to make a bad decision, and even if you buy at the right price it is often hard to sell as there are few buyers at any given time.
 
Ashley Madison
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