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Ten reasons not to be optimistic about 2010

oil&gas

Well-known member
Apr 16, 2002
12,222
1,618
113
Ghawar
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/12/30/ten-reasons-not-to-be-optimistic-about-2010/

1. Global bank balance sheets remain loaded with toxic assets. The real
banking crisis has not started. Government bailouts have delayed the
day of reckoning, not eliminated it.

2. Stock markets rebounded ‘too far, too fast’ in 2009 and are
overdue for a big correction, see the Bradley forecast.

3. Chinese exports fell around 20 per cent in 2009, and have not
recovered. Global trade continues to reel from the worst crash since
the 1930s.

4. US consumer and commercial lending is sharply down. The banks still
are not lending for spending.

5. Property values continue to deteriorate around the world putting
new financial pressure on owners and banks. US mortgage resets are the
sub-prime crisis part two.

6. A double-dip recession like 1980-82 is the most likely scenario with
a further leg down in the second half of 2010. The 2009 downturn was
too short following a major financial crisis.

7. Emerging markets like India and China are faking their growth –
Chinese exports for example are in a deep depression. These markets are
anyway too small to lead global recovery.

8. Oil prices are too high, and generally depress economic activity.

9. The record gold price indicates that smart investors are expecting
the worst.

10. In past major global financial crises a bond market crash has always
been the final phase, and we have not seen that yet. This will bring
much higher interest rates, and a boom in the gold price.
 

21pro

Crotch Sniffer
Oct 22, 2003
7,830
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Caledon East
Canada will have one of the top 3 strongest currencies in the world in 2010. Yeah, both good and bad- but, chiefly it means we have a solid economy here.

Canada is also expected to be the leading GDP of all the G8 nations. but, it's only supposed to grow at 2.8%... Good, but not great.
 

Berlin

New member
Jan 31, 2003
11,411
1
0
Canada will have one of the top 3 strongest currencies in the world in 2010. Yeah, both good and bad-
Say if the USD keeps getting propped up no matter what, I'd have to agree with the above.

My fear though is not knowing what our government would do fiscally should the USD tank within an extremely short period.
 
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